As the world watches the Vatican, the race to elect a new pope is heating up, with Cardinal Pietro Parolin emerging as the frontrunner. Following the death of Pope Francis, the Conclave began on May 7, 2025, with 133 cardinals gathering to select his successor. The anticipation reached a peak on May 8 when white smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel, signaling that a new pope had been chosen.
According to betting platform Polymarket, Parolin's odds skyrocketed from 31% to 71% within a single day, indicating a significant shift in public sentiment regarding his candidacy. As of 1:30 PM on May 8, 2025, Parolin commanded 70% of the betting interest, far ahead of his closest competitor, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who held just 16%.
The odds reflect the confidence bettors have in Parolin, who is seen as a unifying figure capable of bridging the gap between progressive and conservative factions within the Church. At 70 years old, he has been an influential player in Vatican diplomacy, serving as Secretary of State since 2013 under Pope Francis and previously under Pope Benedict XVI.
Parolin's extensive background includes vital negotiations with China and Vietnam, where he played a crucial role in improving relations between the Vatican and these nations. His diplomatic experience has earned him the nickname "vice-papa," as he is regarded as the second most powerful figure in the Vatican hierarchy.
However, the betting landscape is not solely dominated by Parolin. Other candidates remain in the running, including Tagle, who has seen a rise in his odds from 19% to 23% in recent days. The other prominent names in the betting mix include Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Matteo Zuppi, each holding around 10% of the betting interest.
Despite the high stakes, the betting scene is complex. For instance, while Parolin's high odds suggest he is the favorite, they also reflect a lower likelihood of his election, as higher odds typically indicate a less probable outcome. In contrast, lower odds for candidates like Tagle may suggest a more realistic chance of being elected.
The Conclave process is steeped in tradition, requiring that a candidate achieve a two-thirds majority to be elected. This means that while Parolin is currently leading in public opinion and betting, the final decision lies with the cardinals, who must come to a consensus during their secretive voting.
As the cardinals cast their votes in the Sistine Chapel, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation. The last two days of voting have been marked by black smoke, indicating that no pope was chosen in those rounds. The cardinals are now preparing for another round of voting, with hopes that a decision will soon be reached.
In addition to the betting interest, the potential candidates have been evaluated based on their past actions and statements. Parolin, for instance, has been careful in his public statements, often avoiding direct engagement in the Church's cultural wars over issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. However, he has voiced strong opposition to same-sex marriage, calling it a "defeat for humanity."
His diplomatic approach has made him a well-known figure among global leaders and diplomats, but it raises questions about whether his profile will help him garner the necessary support from the cardinals. A source within the Church remarked, "He is the most recognized cardinal. The question is whether his profile will help create consensus. He has not taken many public stances on societal issues, remaining largely institutional in his role."
As the Conclave continues, the stakes are higher than ever, with the potential for a historic shift in the papacy. The world awaits the announcement of the new pope, and with the betting on Parolin intensifying, he stands at the center of this pivotal moment in Catholic history.
In the world of betting, the volume of wagers placed on Parolin has surged, reaching approximately $2 million following the announcement of white smoke. This figure highlights the confidence that bettors have in his candidacy, reflecting broader public sentiment.
However, it is important to note that betting on such events is illegal in Brazil, as per the regulations that came into effect on January 1, 2025. According to Ricardo Magri, an expert in iGaming development, the law restricts betting to real sporting events and random outcome games, leaving no room for speculation on ecclesiastical elections.
As the cardinals remain isolated, the anticipation builds. The next vote could very well determine not just the future of the papacy, but the direction of the Catholic Church itself in a rapidly changing world. With each ballot cast, the hopes and prayers of millions hang in the balance, waiting to see who will emerge as the next leader of the Church.
In the meantime, the world watches closely, with the betting markets providing a glimpse into the shifting tides of favor among the contenders. Whether Parolin will ultimately be chosen remains to be seen, but his rise in the betting odds reflects a growing belief that he could indeed be the next pope.
As the clock ticks down and the cardinals prepare for their next vote, all eyes remain on the Vatican, where history is about to be made.
