MANILA, Philippines — The rising cost of eggs has sparked concerns within the Philippines as the Department of Agriculture (DA) implements urgent measures to stave off shortages and price surges linked to the global bird flu crisis. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. announced on February 1, 2025, their proactive steps to stabilize production and safeguard food security amid fears of supply disruptions.
This initiative follows alarming trends reported from the U.S., where severe outbreaks of avian influenza have necessitated the culling of millions of egg-laying hens, and it was stated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, "Unlike in past years, all major production systems experienced significant losses, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic types." The chicken price crisis stateside—where the average price of Grade A large eggs peaked at $4.15 as of December 2024—is being watched closely by Filipino authorities.
Laurel cautioned, "We still have time, so there is a chance we could avert this," underscoring the importance of decisive action to boost egg production before any possible shortages might arise. He warned, based on projections, the country could see egg supply deficiencies as early as April 2025. Local farmers contended with culling their layers due to weak demand and oversupply, raising fears over future production capabilities.
The DA's strategy includes expediting the importation of new egg-laying chickens and seeking the swift approval of avian influenza vaccines by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). They are also aiming to secure P300 million through the National Livestock Program for testing vaccines, which could potentially lead to mass inoculation efforts starting as early as March.
Egg prices are not only influenced by supply chain issues due to bird flu but also by state laws advocating for cage-free eggs, which typically cost more. Patrick Penfield, a supply chain expert at Syracuse University’s School of Management, has voiced concerns about soaring egg prices, predicting they might increase another 20 percent throughout the year, potentially reaching nearly $5.00 per dozen by the end of 2025—a record high.
Reflecting on the situation, Penfield noted the far-reaching impact of the bird flu, which, technically known as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), has led to record deaths among egg-laying hens. "Once bird flu is detected, a farm must cull all the birds in the flock," he warned, emphasizing the devastating effects on the industry due to the long maturation process for hens, which can take up to five months before they begin laying eggs.
The levels of biosecurity currently being implemented vary significantly from farm to farm. Penfield reiterated, "The only defense is biosecurity practices," which include keeping chickens safe from wild birds and adhering to detailed sanitation protocols to reduce the chances of infection.
While chicken markets brace for potential shortages, this situation mirrors global trends reflecting increased food prices resulting from illness outbreaks and ecological conditions. The Philippines is proactively addressing these threats to keep market prices stable, but will it be enough to shield consumers from the sweeping impacts of supply chain disruptions?
Experts remain hopeful for some natural immunity developing within chicken populations. Still, this could take years and may not offer lasting protection against any future mutations of the virus. The threat of HPAI continues as both the U.S. and Philippine markets grapple with these harsh realities.
The urgent measures undertaken by the DA reflect not just the pandemic's overwhelming impact on poultry supply chains but also the burgeoning prices consumers face as they look to purchase necessities. Keep feeding the flock, as the future of egg prices hangs delicately in the balance against the backdrop of public health precautions and food security imperatives.