Investors in the Philippines and across global markets found fresh cause for optimism this week, as expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve sent stocks and precious metals rallying. The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) surged by 1.51 percent, or 91.31 points, closing at 6,148.74 on September 26, 2025, halting a recent slide and injecting a dose of confidence into the local bourse. The broader All Shares index also climbed, rising 0.97 percent, or 35.63 points, to finish the session at 3,706.2, according to reporting by The Philippine Star.
The catalyst for this renewed investor appetite? Hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve, in its highly anticipated meeting held Wednesday night (Manila time), would trim its benchmark interest rate in response to a cooling jobs market and persistent inflationary pressures, themselves exacerbated by a new round of tariffs. As a result, buyers snapped up stocks that had been battered in Monday’s downturn, with bargain hunting dominating the session. "After the market closed in the red on Monday, buyers took control of today’s session as bargain hunting persisted. However, firm catalysts are still needed to determine whether this really marks the beginning of a true market recovery," said Luis Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., as quoted by The Philippine Star.
Limlingan added, "Investor sentiment was lifted by the expectation of an upcoming interest rate cut, which slightly offset the concerns about slowing job growth." The data backs up this optimism: the financial sector led the rally, climbing by an impressive 3.7 percent, while mining and oil stocks jumped 3.22 percent. Not all sectors joined in the celebration, however. Property stocks bucked the trend, dipping by 0.44 percent on the day.
Trading activity was brisk, with P6.56 billion worth of shares changing hands. Of the listed stocks, winners outpaced losers 101 to 93, with 59 issues unchanged, providing further evidence of the market’s positive mood. Still, as Limlingan cautioned, the sustainability of this rebound remains to be seen, hinging largely on the Federal Reserve’s next moves and the broader global economic outlook.
Across the Pacific, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut was equally palpable. According to The Economic Times, U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 1 percent higher at $3,809 per ounce on September 26, 2025, extending a run of weekly gains. The spark? U.S. inflation data, specifically the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in August—right in line with economists’ expectations. This alignment with forecasts reassured investors that the Fed would likely proceed with a cautious rate cut at its October meeting.
The CME FedWatch Tool, closely watched by traders, reflected an 88 percent probability of a rate cut in October and a 65 percent chance of another reduction in December. Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, told The Economic Times, "Monthly PCE data is in line, though personal income and spending were a tenth above expectations. Nothing from this data will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut at the October meeting." Investors and analysts were also keeping an eye on upcoming remarks from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, scheduled for September 27, for further clues about the central bank’s stance.
Gold wasn’t the only metal basking in the glow of dovish monetary policy expectations. Spot silver soared 2.6 percent to $46.41 per ounce, notching a 14-year high. Palladium was up 2.8 percent to $1,284.77 per ounce, and platinum jumped 2.5 percent to $1,568.21—its highest level in more than 12 years. Analysts attributed some of this momentum to investors seeking more affordable alternatives as gold prices remain elevated, but there were other forces at play as well. For instance, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge to cut net Chinese carbon emissions by 7 to 10 percent by 2035 has spurred demand for silver, which is a key component in solar cell production. "Chinese President Xi's pledge to cut net Chinese carbon emissions by 7-10% by 2035 has also spurred buying of silver which is used in solar cells," Wong noted.
Adding to the metals market’s bullish tone, Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine, tightening supply and supporting prices. The convergence of these factors—monetary policy, industrial demand, and supply disruptions—created a perfect storm for metals investors, who have been searching for safe havens and growth opportunities amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the trade front saw fresh turbulence. Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new wave of tariffs on imported drugs, trucks, and furniture, set to take effect on October 1, 2025. This move, as covered by The Economic Times, was expected to further stoke inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s delicate balancing act. With inflation still running hot and the job market showing signs of fatigue, the Fed faces the tricky task of supporting growth without letting prices spiral out of control.
Back in Manila, the mood was cautiously upbeat. The PSEi’s rebound, fueled by hopes of easier monetary policy in the world’s largest economy, underscored the interconnectedness of global markets. What happens in Washington, D.C., can send ripples—or waves—across oceans and into the portfolios of investors in Southeast Asia and beyond. The influx of capital into financial and resource stocks reflected a broader search for yield and resilience in an uncertain world.
Yet, questions linger. Will the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts be enough to stave off a more pronounced slowdown? How will new tariffs and trade tensions shape the inflation landscape in the months ahead? And can emerging markets like the Philippines sustain their momentum if global headwinds intensify? The answers remain elusive, but for now, investors seem willing to bet that central banks have their backs.
As September draws to a close, all eyes will be on upcoming data releases, Fed speeches, and the first effects of the new U.S. tariffs. For investors, policymakers, and ordinary citizens alike, it’s a reminder that in the age of globalization, economic fortunes are more tightly intertwined than ever before. One thing’s for sure: the next chapter in this unfolding story will be closely watched—on trading floors, in boardrooms, and around kitchen tables across the world.