The National League Wild Card race is reaching a fever pitch, and nowhere was that more evident than at Great American Ball Park on September 24, 2025, as the Cincinnati Reds hosted the Pittsburgh Pirates. With the Reds still clinging to postseason hopes and the Pirates relishing the role of spoiler, fans were treated to a high-stakes showdown between two of the league’s most electrifying young pitchers: Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh and Hunter Greene for Cincinnati.
First pitch was scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT, and the energy in Cincinnati was palpable. The Reds entered the contest as -120 favorites on the moneyline, while the Pirates, coming off a morale-boosting 4-2 victory the night before, were listed at +100. The game total was set at a modest seven runs, reflecting the expected pitcher’s duel between Skenes and Greene.
For the Pirates, the 2025 season had been a challenging one. They arrived in Cincinnati with a 68-89 record against the spread (ATS), and just a 32% winning percentage on the road—second lowest in Major League Baseball. Their offensive struggles were well documented: a team slugging percentage of just .331 away from home (tied for lowest in MLB), and an OPS of .619 in road games, also near the bottom of the league. Lefty-lefty matchups had been particularly brutal, with the Pirates batting a mere .117 in those situations.
Yet, despite the tough numbers, Pittsburgh’s Tuesday night win had thrown a wrench into Cincinnati’s postseason plans. Oneil Cruz’s two-run homer in the second inning, his 20th of the season, capped a four-run outburst that proved decisive. Rookie Hunter Barco, making his major league debut, earned his first career victory, and Dennis Santana notched his 15th save. The win snapped Cincinnati’s five-game winning streak and, with the New York Mets edging the Cubs 9-7, dropped the Reds a full game behind the Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot.
“This is what September baseball is all about,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said before Wednesday’s game. “Spoiler or not, we’re here to play our best and see what we’re made of.”
The stage was set for a marquee pitching matchup. Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ ace, brought a 10-10 record and a sparkling 2.04 ERA into the contest. He’d racked up 209 strikeouts across 181.2 innings in 2025, establishing himself as one of the most dominant arms in the league. Skenes’ last start, however, had been a rare stumble: he allowed three earned runs, three walks, and seven hits in just 3.2 innings against the Cubs, though he still managed to strike out six. Notably, Skenes hadn’t allowed three or more earned runs in back-to-back games all season—a trend Pirates fans hoped would continue.
On the other side, Hunter Greene had emerged as the Reds’ undisputed ace. The 26-year-old right-hander entered with a 7-4 record, a 2.75 ERA, and 125 strikeouts in 101.2 innings. While he’d pitched fewer innings this season than in previous years, Greene’s control and strikeout-to-walk ratio had improved significantly, jumping from 3.0 last year to 5.2. “This is the biggest start of my career so far,” Greene admitted pregame. “We know what’s at stake. The energy in the clubhouse is electric.”
Statistically, both pitchers faced lineups with their own quirks. Pirates hitters had struggled to drive the ball all season, but Skenes’ ability to limit walks and control the strike zone had kept Pittsburgh competitive in many tight games. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense had its own issues: they batted just .227 against left-handed pitching since last season (lowest in MLB), and their hitters chased only 19% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups, showing discipline but not much punch. Slugging on pitches out of the zone sat at a paltry .151 during the 2024 campaign, also a league low.
Betting models gave the Reds a slight edge, projecting a 52.8% chance of victory. Player prop bets reflected recent hot streaks: Joey Bart had hit the home run over in two of his last four games, while Alexander Canario had collected singles in seven of his last ten. For the Reds, Spencer Steer had gone deep in three of his last six contests, and Elly De La Cruz had been a hitting machine at home, recording hits in 20 of his last 25 games at Great American Ball Park.
As the game unfolded, every pitch seemed to carry postseason weight. The Pirates, already eliminated from playoff contention, played loose and aggressive, while the Reds, knowing the Mets were just ahead in the Wild Card standings, pressed to manufacture runs. Cincinnati’s faithful, who had seen their team win five straight before Tuesday’s setback, were eager for a bounce-back performance.
Both teams’ recent betting trends underscored the likelihood of a low-scoring affair. The Pirates had hit the team total under in 95 of their last 156 games, and the game total under in 85 of their last 145. The Reds, too, had seen the under hit in 81 of their last 134 contests. With two elite arms on the mound and both offenses prone to slumps, fans and bettors alike braced for a tense, tactical showdown.
Broadcast on KDKA AM/FM and Sportsnet-PIT, the game drew a lively audience both in the stands and online. The Bucs Dugout community, always passionate, filled their Game Day thread with commentary, analysis, and the occasional superstitious ritual—anything to will their team to victory or, in the Pirates’ case, to play spoiler one more time.
As innings ticked by, every baserunner, every mound visit, and every managerial decision was scrutinized. Would Skenes bounce back from his rough outing and silence the Reds’ bats? Could Greene harness the moment and keep Cincinnati’s Wild Card dreams alive? With the Mets looming just ahead in the standings, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the home team.
Whatever the outcome, Wednesday’s contest was a testament to the drama and unpredictability of late-season baseball. The Pirates, despite their record, proved they could go toe-to-toe with playoff hopefuls, while the Reds faced the pressure of must-win baseball with everything on the line.
As the series finale approaches, all eyes remain on Cincinnati. With just a handful of games left, the Wild Card race is anything but settled, and every pitch matters. For the Reds and their fans, hope is still alive—but the margin for error has all but vanished.
