The Brazilian political scene is gearing up for the 2026 presidential elections as the Instituto Paraná Pesquisas has released intriguing insights through its most recent survey. Conducted from February 13 to 16, 2025, this study offers vivid scenarios devoid of prominent figures like President Luiz Ignácio Lula da Silva (PT) and former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), both of whom bring their own set of circumstances to the political table.
The Paraná Pesquisas poll reveals fascinating insights about voters’ intentions. Notably, the current governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, emerges as the leading candidate, garnering 23.9% of voting intentions among the seven names presented. Following closely is Fernando Haddad, the Minister of Finance, who would substitute Lula, trailing with 18.9%. Highlighting the shifting dynamics, Ciro Gomes (PDT), albeit having declared he would not run, stands at 16.7%.
Surprisingly, the non-traditional entry of the country’s renowned sertanejo singer, Gusttavo Lima, registers 12.4% of the votes. Conspicuously, the survey indicates several governors also caught the public's eye, including Ronaldo Caiado of Goiás with 4.2%, Eduardo Leite of Rio Grande do Sul with 3.8%, and Helder Barbalho of Pará at 1.3%. What makes these results compelling is the notable percentage of voters—13%—who remain undecided or are opting for blank/null votes.
Reevaluations show more depth when Michelle Bolsonaro’s name replaces Tarcísio's, leading to significant changes. Should Bolsonaro's wife enter the race, she could potentially snag 30.2% of voters, overtaking Haddad, who would fall to 18.8%. This raises questions about the political significance of familial connections within Brazilian politics, as Bolsonaro has openly expressed support for his wife’s possible candidacy, hinting at influencing her administration if she were elected. "Bolsonaro would support his wife if elected, conditioning her appointment as Minister of the Civil House," political analysts note.
These developments lead to stark forecasts when considering Lula’s current standing against these new characters. The current president finds himself technically tied with both Michelle and Tarcísio during second-round scenarios—indicating voters' rapid evolution or preferences.
Deep down, if Lula squared off against Bolsonaro, who remains technically out of the running due to legal restrictions until 2030, results could favor the latter. One poll showed Bolsonaro leading with 45.1% to Lula’s 40.2% should the election were held today. This dynamic paints Lula as vulnerable even amid his incumbency, stemming from rising public disapproval toward his administration.
The study engaged 2,010 participants across all states, ensuring the representation speaks to the wider Brazilian electorate. A distinct feature of the results shows how Lula’s preference falls flat against Bolsonaro, even if the latter cannot officially contest the election.
Adding another layer is the analysis of how well Fernando Haddad, as the realistic successor to Lula should he not pursue re-election, would fare. The poll suggested Haddad would trail Tarcísio with 18.9% against the governor's leading 23.9%. Such outcomes unravel the intertwined destinies of Brazil’s political figures, and the hangover of previous administrations lingers.
Despite Lula leading numerically during spontaneous inquiries, holding 19% compared to Bolsonaro’s 17.6%, it appears the looming specter of Bolsonaro’s political legacy coupled with fluctuated voter sentiments has positioned Lula at risk of political attrition. Even with numerous supports, public perceptions shift rapidly—52% of respondents remain unsure of their voting intentions.
The results ignite considerable discourse surrounding the 2026 elections—a reminder of the political theatre constantly at play. The depths of political allegiance remain thin, with 6.2% unwilling to vote for any candidate. These revelations by Paraná Pesquisas signal both the pressing uncertainties and the dynastic possibilities inherent within Brazil’s forthcoming rounds of electioneering.
From this mixed mélange of electoral preferences, Bolsonaro's influence appears resilient, tantalizingly close yet unattainable due to judicial constraints. The political chess game continues, with families like the Bolsonaros re-emerging as pivotal players.