The 2025 papal conclave begins on May 7, just over two weeks after Pope Francis's passing. Held inside the Sistine Chapel, the conclave is governed by strict protocols and centuries-old traditions. Only cardinal electors under the age of 80—133 in total this year—are allowed to vote. They will remain isolated from the outside world until a new pope is chosen. The voting process includes up to four secret ballots per day, and to elect a pope, a two-thirds majority (at least 89 votes) is required. After each ballot, smoke signals from the chapel chimney reveal the outcome: black smoke means no decision, while white smoke signals a successful election.
Voting begins with a morning Mass, followed by an afternoon entry into the Sistine Chapel. On the first day, cardinals vote once. From the second day on, they hold up to four ballots a day—two in the morning and two in the afternoon. The ballots are folded, carried to the altar, and dropped into a special urn. Scrutineers (cardinals chosen at random) count and read each vote aloud. Ballots are threaded together with a needle and burned in a stove. The color of the smoke tells the world what's happening inside: black smoke means no decision, and white smoke signals a new pope has been chosen. If no pope is chosen after three days, the cardinals pause for a day of prayer and reflection. Then, seven more ballots are held. This cycle can happen three times, after which the two frontrunners enter a runoff vote, though they cannot vote themselves. In modern history, conclaves haven’t lasted long. In fact, the last 12 papal elections since 1846 wrapped up in three to five days.
Several top candidates are currently in the spotlight. Leading the race is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, who is considered the favorite. Known for his diplomatic skills, Parolin played a key role in the Vatican’s 2018 agreement with China over bishop appointments. Despite his experience, some critics question his leadership due to past financial controversies. Another strong contender is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines. At 67 years old, Tagle is popular for his progressive stance and is often described as the "Asian Francis." His selection would make him the first Asian pope in history. Also in the mix is Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who at 76 years old could become the first African pope in over 1,500 years. He’s well-known for advocating for social justice and climate issues. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, of Italy, has also emerged as a favorite. He’s been involved in international peace efforts and represents a moderate yet reform-minded voice within the Church.
According to recent betting data from the New York Post, the current odds to become the next pope are: Cardinal Pietro Parolin – 15/8, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle – 5/2, Cardinal Peter Turkson – 5/1, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi – 6/1. The Sistine Chapel has been retrofitted with high-tech security measures to prevent any leaks. From electronic jamming devices to physical sweeps for hidden microphones, the Vatican is going all out to keep the proceedings confidential. As Reuters described it, this is where "Michelangelo meets James Bond"—a nod to the tight secrecy and majestic setting of the conclave. All cardinals are sworn to complete secrecy. Breaking this oath can result in excommunication.
There’s no set timeline for how long the conclave can last. Some experts believe that a new pope could be elected within a few days, especially if the cardinals rally around a clear favorite. Others suggest it could take longer if debates around ideology and global representation stall progress. With growing divisions between traditionalists and reformers in the College of Cardinals, consensus might not come easily.
The Papal Conclave 2025 is more than a religious event—it’s a global moment. As the Church faces questions around modern values, global leadership, and reform, the next pope will shape Catholicism’s future for generations. Whether it’s Parolin, Tagle, Turkson, or Zuppi, the world will be watching as white smoke rises from the Vatican.
In anticipation of the conclave, all mobile phone signals will be deactivated in the Vatican on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. Signal jammers will be used around the Sistine Chapel to prevent electronic surveillance or communication outside the conclave. Phone signal will be cut off at 3 p.m. local time (9 a.m. ET) on Wednesday, an hour and a half before the cardinals are scheduled to proceed to the Sistine Chapel to begin the papal conclave. All 133 cardinals who will vote to elect Francis’ successor have already arrived in Rome. The cardinals will have to give up their phones and all electronic devices starting Tuesday, May 6, 2025, and will only get their devices back once the conclave has ended. The cardinals will all be shut in the Sistine Chapel and locked away from the outside world from Wednesday.
In addition to the conclave's secrecy, the Pontifical Commission for the Protection of Minors has expressed its spiritual closeness and support for the cardinal electors through a public statement and prayer. The Commission noted that safeguarding has been a priority in the pre-Conclave discussions among the cardinals in Rome. They acknowledged the profound responsibility that lies before the College of Cardinals and emphasized the importance of protecting the vulnerable in the life of the Church.
As the conclave approaches, the cardinals have also lamented ongoing conflicts around the world, including in Ukraine and the Middle East. They have made a heartfelt appeal for peace and expressed hope that the next pope will be a shepherd committed to transparency and protection. The cardinals are expected to seek a leader who can navigate the complexities of modern society while staying true to the core values of the Church.
Ultimately, the next pope will be the cardinal who, without appearing to do so, can convince others that he can represent the Church globally and address the challenges facing it: adapting to secularization and dealing well with recent sexual and financial scandals, as well as declining membership in the West. The outcome of this conclave will not only determine the next leader of the Catholic Church but also set the tone for its future direction.
