The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has officially issued a drought alert for three of its provinces—Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab—due to alarming declines in rainfall, posing serious risks for agriculture and water resources.
On March 24, 2025, the PMD raised warnings that drought conditions are expected to persist despite recent rain spells having alleviated conditions in parts of the northern and central areas of the country. Reports have shown that, from September 1, 2024, to March 21, 2025, rainfall has plummeted to an alarming 40% below average across Pakistan, severely impacting Sindh, which has recorded a staggering 62% deficit.
In a further breakdown of impacts, the PMD pointed out that regions in southern Balochistan and lower eastern Punjab are also likely to face moderate to severe drought conditions. Specifically, the southern areas of Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, and Rahim Yar Khan in Punjab are projected to be heavily affected. Moderate drought conditions are also anticipated in significant areas of Sindh, including Karachi, Hyderabad, and Dadu, while mild drought conditions are predicted for places like Ghotki and Sukkur.
The alarming situation has been exacerbated by the fact that temperatures in the lower half of the country have been reported as 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal during the month of March 2025. Some regions have even experienced dry spells exceeding 200 consecutive days, further deteriorating soil moisture levels and stressing crops already vulnerable to water shortages.
The National Drought Monitoring & Early Warning Centre of PMD stated that flash droughts, capable of developing rapidly due to sharp changes in weather conditions, are also likely in the upcoming months if precipitation continues to fall short of normal levels.
In an alert issued by UrduPoint on March 25, it was noted that various rivers across the country are exhibiting critically low water flow, which poses a significant risk to the upcoming Kharif season—a vital agricultural period for the nation.
The Technical Committee of the Indus River System Authority convened on the same day to assess available water resources and strategize for the Kharif planting season. As drought conditions emerge, further actions and mitigations are being discussed to confront this impending challenge.
Meanwhile, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has also taken precautionary steps by issuing alerts about anticipated rains in the upper parts of the province, urging all Deputy Commissioners to be vigilant and prepared for any emergencies that may arise in the days to come. Their control room is now operational 24/7, ready to handle potential crises and provide assistance as needed.
Accompanying these alerts are ongoing reports illustrating dire rainfall statistics across the provinces. The indices have revealed that Balochistan is suffering from a 52% deficit and Punjab 38%, with additional setbacks reported in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan as well (29%, 35%, and 2% respectively).
As of March 24, critical water shortages at Tarbela and Mangla dams were reported, with levels at dead-level capacity of 1,402 feet in Tarbela and 1,061.75 feet in Mangla. This places immense strain on the already tight water supply for agricultural and domestic use.
The backdrop of this crisis is a pressing reality—the PMD has alerted that if this trend continues, it could lead to unfathomable issues for residents dependent on agriculture for livelihood. Stakeholders are being urged to remain alert as the PMD continues to monitor the unfolding drought closely.
"The overall rainfall from September 1, 2024, to March 21, 2025, was 40% below normal," emphasized a PMD spokesperson, highlighting the gravity of the situation. In compliance, all concerned authorities must take immediate action to safeguard agricultural interests and ensure adequate relief provisions.
As the country navigates through this precarious weather condition, the emphasis on preparing for potential droughts is more critical than ever, as Pakistan braces itself for possible exacerbations in drought severity in the months to come. The delicate state of water resources and agricultural viability necessitates prompt and collective responses across all sectors involved in managing and responding to this emerging crisis.
