The Green Bay Packers are set to host the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field this Monday night, December 23, as part of the NFL's Week 16 slate. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and fans can catch the action on ESPN and ABC. With the Packers boasting a 10-4 record and aiming for playoff positioning, this game is pivotal for their postseason aspirations.
The Packers have been rolling lately, coming off three straight wins, including a decisive 30-13 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, scoring at least 30 points over their last four outings. Meanwhile, the Saints enter the game with a record of 5-9, facing significant challenges, including injuries to key players.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Packers are heavily favored at -14 points, with the moneyline set at Packers -900 and Saints +600. The over/under for total points is currently at 42, indicating expectations for a low-scoring affair, especially considering the forecast for snow and rain.
The stakes are high for the Packers, as they can clinch at least one wild card spot with this victory. "It’s about maintaining our momentum going forward and staying sharp for the playoffs," Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said during a pre-game interview, underscoring the importance of winning at home.
On the other side, the Saints will be without starting quarterback Derek Carr and running back Alvin Kamara, leaving rookie Spencer Rattler to lead the offense. Rattler will be making just his fourth NFL start, and it will be his first under the harsh conditions of Lambeau Field during winter. "I know it’s going to be cold out there, but I’m ready for the challenge," Rattler stated, acknowledging the difficulty of the game.
The Saints' offense has struggled without their star players, and their recent performances reflect this inadequacy. "We’ve had to lean on our defense more than we would like this season," Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi noted. The team faces significant hurdles, having scored only 13, 14, and 22 points during recent outdoor games, where conditions were more favorable than what they will encounter tonight.
From a betting perspective, many analysts lean toward the Packers comfortably covering the spread. The Packers currently rank among the top teams offensively, with their ground game being particularly effective against the poor Saints rushing defense, which ranks near the bottom of the league. The Packers excel at running the ball, sitting at fourth overall with 144.4 rushing yards per game—a stat they aim to capitalize on against New Orleans, which ranks 27th against the run.
"We’re going to establish the run early and often," Packers running back Josh Jacobs said, setting the stage for their game plan.
Defensively, the Packers also hold the edge, with their defensive unit ranking sixth in EPA allowed per play, making it tough for Rattler and the Saints’ offense to move downfield. The combination of rookie quarterback nerves and missing offensive firepower for New Orleans has led many experts to predict struggles for the visiting team.
The Packers will also benefit from their home field advantage. Historically, they perform well at Lambeau Field, sporting a record of 39-12 straight-up under LaFleur at home. Unfavorable conditions provide the Packers with added leverage, making it even harder for the Saints to generate offense.
Head-to-head matchups historically favor the Packers, especially when they have such significant odds against the Saints. Compounding the problems for New Orleans, their offense has had challenges moving the ball consistently, scoring 20 or fewer points against stronger defenses.
Mentions of past performances lead us to expectations of another lopsided contest. Betting odds reflect this sentiment, with the majority of public money backing the Packers. "Nobody seems to have much faith in the Saints moving forward after their recent stretch of performances," noted NFL analyst Joe Smith.
With weather conditions likely impacting play and the Saints missing several stars, many pundits forecast the Packers will not just win but also cover. "Scoring looks to be minimal for the Saints, and combined with Green Bay's drive, I expect them to hit the spread," Smith added.
Final predictions lean heavily toward the Packers, with many analysts offering scores around the 31-16 or 32-14 range, leading toward the over if, perhaps, the Saints can muster late-game points against backups.
Overall, as the Packers and Saints clash, expect the home squad to dominate as they pursue their playoff goals. The Packers have shown consistency, strength, and skill throughout the season, all of which will be put to the test against the struggling Saints.
