Pacers Aim To Solidify Fourth Seed Amid Bench Struggles

As the end of the season approaches, the Indiana Pacers find themselves in a fierce three-team battle for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. This coveted position not only comes with the prestige of a home-court advantage but also the hope of a deep playoff run. As of March 19, 2025, the Pacers are clinging to a slender half-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks and a full game ahead of the Detroit Pistons, all vying for this critical spot. The stakes could not be higher as each game could tilt the balance in favor of one of the teams vying for postseason glory.

The Pacers, currently in the number four spot, have shown resilience throughout the season. It’s quite a turnaround considering that they spent significant time as the fifth seed. Their recent performance has caught the attention of fans and analysts alike, but there's a shadow looming over their playoff potential. If the playoffs were to start today, the Pacers would face off against their familiar foes, the Milwaukee Bucks, in a first-round matchup. This would echo last year's intense playoff duel, where the Pacers prevailed despite being the lower seed.

However, this year's scenario brings mixed feelings. While Indiana won that matchup last year, the Bucks have proved to be a thorn in their side during the regular season, winning three out of their four encounters. The Bucks' dominance in head-to-head matchups, including victories with a margin of at least seven points in three contests, weighs heavily on the Pacers' chances. Their lone victory in the regular-season series reflects their ability to perform in clutch moments, winning by just one point.

There’s a stark contrast between this year’s matches and last year's playoff series: the Pacers had a commanding 4-1 advantage in head-to-head regular season play back then. But with the present, Indiana must confront the reality that their season-long rivalry has tilted back in favor of the Bucks, creating an unsettling dynamic for Indiana fans.

Despite the ongoing challenges, a glimmer of hope remains for the Pacers. With a talented roster and the ability to perform under pressure, they can still turn the tide in their favor. However, questions persist about their depth, specifically the performance of their bench players. Notably, during their recent game against the Bucks on March 15, the Pacers' bench suffered from poor performance, highlighted by T.J. McConnell and Bennedict Mathurin, both recording exceedingly low plus/minus ratings of -34 during a slim seven-point loss. Coach Rick Carlisle faced tough questions following this game, as the bench failed to provide the necessary support.

McConnell reflected on the bench's struggles, stating, “Just was a pitiful performance by our bench, starting with me. It’s not going to get it done.” His disappointment underscores the larger issue of the bench's inconsistency throughout the season. In contrast, the starting unit, which performed admirably against the Bucks, showed a resilience yet to be fully matched by their reserve players, winning their minutes by a net 10 points.

The challenges persist when mixing the starters with a struggling bench. The combination yielded a -33 differential over 19.5 minutes, a statistic that has left analysts scratching their heads. Further complicating matters, the Pacers' bench saw its scoring drop significantly, sliding to ninth among NBA benches after ranking first last season. The plus/minus statistic has also taken a negative turn, plummeting from +0.8 per game last season to -1.3 this year.

In light of these trends, a bright spot emerged during the Pacers' victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 17. In that game, despite missing several key starters, the reserves rallied and showcased their potential, ultimately leading to a team victory. McConnell contributed effectively with 11 points and 13 assists, while Obi Toppin had a standout night with 34 points, marking his best game as a Pacer. His performance included a game-winning three-pointer during overtime—a moment that sparked joy among players and fans alike.

Although the Timberwolves have been on a winning streak, the Pacers' reserves stepped up when it mattered most, demonstrating the unpredictability and excitement of playoff basketball. Even in the face of adversity, the Pacers are retaining faith in their ability to compete. As Haliburton pointed out, “There’s games where [the bench]’s got to pick up the starters' slack, and they do. When we’re not playing well, they come in and play well, and we kind of follow their lead.”

Nonetheless, the fluctuations of the reserve unit are a concern as the Pacers head towards the playoffs, particularly with a looming rematch against the Bucks if the standings remain unchanged. Since January 1, the bench has had a negative +/- of -83 when fewer than four starters are on the floor, raising questions about the depth and reliability of the team’s bench moving forward.

As the Pacers aim for stability and consistency from their reserves, they need to tap back into the depth that carried them through the last season's playoffs. With the playoffs rapidly approaching, every game counts, and the pressure is mounting to secure the fourth seed. The next few weeks will be critical, not just for the Pacers' playoff aspirations but for the team’s overall morale as they navigate the unpredictable waters of playoff basketball.