More than three-quarters of the Earth’s land has transitioned to drier conditions, posing significant threats to ecosystems, agriculture, and billions of people worldwide, according to the latest report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The landmark report, released during the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) held recently in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, reveals alarming trends about global aridity, which experts describe as an existential crisis affecting as many as five billion people by the end of the century.
According to the report, titled The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and Global Aridity Trends and Future Projections, 77.6% of the Earth's land has become increasingly dry, marking a stark evolution over the last three decades. The report details how drylands have expanded by roughly 4.3 million square kilometers, which is nearly one-third larger than India.
This significant change encompasses 40.6% of the Earth’s surface excluding Antarctica; critically, 7.6% have crossed the thresholds for aridity, meaning severe environmental changes have taken place, affecting agriculture and human habitation. The findings outline dire scenarios where, without substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the planet's previously humid areas could also become drylands by 2100.
“This analysis finally dispels the uncertainty surrounding global drying trends,” stated Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. He emphasized the permanent nature of this transition, distinguishing between drought—temporary periods of low rainfall—and aridity, which signifies longer-lasting shifts. “Droughts end, but once areas have become truly arid, their ability to revert to previous conditions is lost,” he explained.
The report highlights several active regions facing heightened aridity, particularly throughout Europe, the Mediterranean, the western United States, and parts of South America and Africa. Communities across these areas are already grappling with severe water shortages, decreased agricultural yields, and socio-economic instability.
On the global scale, climate change—fueled by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities—was cited as the primary driver of these worrying trends. Not only has this warming altered rainfall patterns, but it has also exacerbated evaporation rates and impacted plant growth, which are pivotal for hydrological balance.
Critically, the report points to forced migrations as one of the most visible consequences of increased aridity. Families and entire communities from vulnerable regions are often compelled to leave their homes behind as agricultural lands fail and water supply diminishes. Already, millions affected are on the move, with projections indicating this trend will only intensify.
During the COP16 conference, which is seen as the largest ever for the UNCCD, countries, international organizations, NGOs, and private sector representatives gathered to address these growing concerns. More than 24,000 participants took part, discussing pivotal solutions and strategies to combat land degradation and drought.
The Riyadh Action Agenda was launched as part of the conference, aiming to promote collaborative action on drought resilience and land restoration worldwide. “This is only the beginning of its impact,” declared Dr. Osama Faqeeha, Deputy Minister for Environment. The agenda plans to mobilize over 100 initiatives geared toward reversing the detrimental effects of aridity and supporting restoration efforts.
Saudi Arabia’s UNCCD COP16 Presidency also announced the creation of the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership, which has already secured over $2 billion for projects targeting drought-affected areas worldwide. The partnership aims to shift drought management from reactive solutions to proactive measures, emphasizing early warning systems and vulnerability assessments.
The conference also featured the launch of innovative initiatives like the REMDY project—an AI platform for monitoring land health. By enhancing monitoring capabilities, stakeholders can make informed decisions on land and water management, facilitating timely responses to aridity-related changes.
Some specific promises made include Saudi Arabia’s commitment to providing $10 million over the next five years to help improve early warning systems for sand and dust storms, indicative of the proactive approach the Kingdom aims to implement.
“From food and water insecurity to conflict and migration, it is indisputable,” Dr. Faqeeha stated, “that land degradation, drought, and desertification are driving global crises impacting almost every person on our planet.”
Overall, projections from the UN report state the need for sustainable land use practices, effective water management systems, and international cooperation to effectively tackle the looming challenges posed by global aridity. To avert worse outcomes by 2100, it’s clear effective strategies must be implemented now—not just by policymakers, but by communities and individuals worldwide.
The challenges are immense, but so too are the opportunities for creating resilient systems capable of adapting to this new reality. “The call to action is clear,” stated Thiaw. Collaboration, innovation, and determination will be key to finding solutions capable of addressing the stark realities of aridity and ensuring sustainability for generations to come.
