The Oscars may have just ended, but predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards are already in full swing. Pundits are throwing around major titles, from James Cameron’s third installment in the “Avatar” franchise “Avatar: Ash and Water” to Paul Thomas Anderson’s first IMAX feature “One Battle After Another.” Many argue these films are destined for Oscar nominations—whether due to massive box office success or their directors receiving long overdue recognition. Among these contenders, one film already has festival buzz and a distributor with a proven track record in the Oscar race, which could land it in the Oscar conversation: Mike Flanagan’s “The Life of Chuck.”
Adapted from Stephen King’s short story, the drama film marks a departure for Flanagan, a director best known for his work within the horror genre. While his previous narrative feature films—such as “Gerald’s Game” (2017) and “Doctor Sleep” (2019)—have earned critical acclaim, they haven’t been considered typical Oscar fare. He has also gained recognition for directing horror series like “The Haunting of Hill House” (2018) and “The Haunting of Bly Manor” (2020). Despite Flanagan’s strong reputation, his films have never been big contenders for the Oscars.
For “The Life of Chuck” to break through this barrier, it will likely need to capitalize on the significant buzz it generated at TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) this past year and prove its box office appeal during its summer release. This film already gained a significant boost when it won the 2025 TIFF People’s Choice Award, beating out “Anora” and “Emilia Pérez,” two of last year’s biggest Oscar films. “Anora” eventually won five Academy Awards, including Best Picture, while “Emilia Pérez” earned 13 nominations—the most of the year—and took home two Academy Awards.
In recent years, the TIFF’s People’s Choice Award has been a strong predictor for Best Picture nominations, if not wins. In 2008, “Slumdog Millionaire” won both the TIFF award and the Oscar for Best Picture. The following year, “Precious” secured the TIFF win before earning a Best Picture nomination and taking home Best Adapted Screenplay. In 2010, “The King’s Speech” followed the same path, ultimately winning four Oscars, including Best Picture and Best Director. This trend has continued with winners like “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Green Book,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “Nomadland,” and “The Fabelmans,” all which either won Best Picture or at least secured nominations while taking home at least one Oscar.
Since TIFF audiences include moviegoers, bloggers, and press members, the People’s Choice Award is often a strong indicator of how Oscar voters might respond as a general broad consensus. However, winning TIFF alone isn’t enough. A film still needs strong distribution and audience exposure to generate the necessary critical and industry-wide momentum to land it in the Oscar race.
Fortunately, “The Life of Chuck” has NEON as its distributor—a company with a strong track record in the awards race. NEON has announced that “The Life of Chuck” will be released on June 6th, signaling confidence in positioning the film as a summer release. However, it will face stiff competition from major titles like Pixar’s “Elio” and the live-action adaptation of “How to Train Your Dragon,” both releasing in theaters on June 13th. Other anticipated releases in June include “28 Years Later,” “F1,” and “Megan 2.0.”
Despite being a relatively small distributor with around 60 employees, NEON has built a reputation for expertly handling indie film releases during awards season. Since 2017, they have consistently pulled off Oscar nominations and wins. In 2018, “I, Tonya” secured three nominations—Best Actress (Margot Robbie), Best Supporting Actress (Allison Janney), and Best Film Editing—with Janney ultimately winning. Since 2019 (excluding 2020), NEON has acquired North American rights for every Palme d’Or winner. While their films don’t always receive the most nominations, “Parasite” and “Anora” dominated their categories, both winning Best Picture at the Oscars.
NEON’s CEO, Tom Quinn, revealed that they spent $20 million on “Parasite’s” Oscar campaign and $18 million on “Anora.” Each year, NEON typically pushes two or three films through awards season. In 2023, they successfully campaigned “Anatomy of a Fall,” which received five Oscar nominations—including Best Picture—and won Best Original Screenplay. They also backed “Perfect Days,” which secured a nomination for Best International Feature Film, and “Robot Dreams,” which was nominated for Best Animated Feature.
Given this track record, it’s unlikely that NEON will focus solely on “The Life of Chuck” for awards season. The distributor is expected to acquire a high-profile film from Cannes, continuing its trend of Palme d’Or winners making it to the Oscars. Of the five Palme d’Or winners NEON has bought, only “Titane” failed to secure an Oscar nomination despite being France’s official selection for Best International Feature Film. However, TIFF’s strong endorsement of “The Life of Chuck” suggests it may have an even greater appeal than last year’s Cannes favorites, “Anora” and “Emilia Pérez.”
NEON’s decision to release the film in June could indicate confidence in its mainstream potential, relying on organic word-of-mouth before launching a full awards push—likely for another Cannes-acquired title later in the year.
Films released in the summer rarely gain traction with the Academy, no matter how much critics love them—unless they achieve massive box office success. “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” are prime examples of summer blockbusters that broke through to the Oscars. Occasionally, early releases still manage to stay in the awards conversation.
“Black Panther,” which premiered in February, remained relevant throughout the year thanks to a year-long campaign from Disney, ultimately winning three Oscars (Best Production Design, Costume Design, and Original Score) and securing eight nominations, including Best Picture. Similarly, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” had an early release after world premiering at SXSW but sustained momentum, eventually dominating the following year’s Oscars with seven wins, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress for Michelle Yeoh.
However, replicating such success is difficult, with last year’s “Challengers” serving as a cautionary tale—it had strong critical support and even won major televised awards for its score but failed to receive a single Oscar nomination. This presents a potential challenge for “The Life of Chuck.”
As NEON’s first TIFF People’s Choice Award winner, the studio might be experimenting with an early release strategy while keeping the option open to acquire a Cannes contender for later in the year. For Mike Flanagan’s film to remain in the Oscar race, it will need either a box office breakthrough in the middle of the summer blockbuster season or a substantial awards campaign.
The film boasts an impressive cast, including Tom Hiddleston, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, Matthew Lillard, Carl Lumbly, Jacob Tremblay, and Kate Siegel, with Mark Hamill being tapped by early pundits as a possible Best Supporting Actor contender. Other Oscar possibilities include Best Adapted Screenplay for Flanagan, Best Film Editing (another nomination possibility for Flanagan), and Best Original Score (composed by The Newton Brothers).
NEON previously spent $20 million on “Parasite” and $18 million on “Anora” to push them to Oscar victories. A similar investment might be necessary for “The Life of Chuck” to stand a chance, but it very much has it should NEON give it the push it deserves.
Do you think “The Life of Chuck” will be an Oscar contender this year for Mike Flanagan? What did you think of the teaser trailer released a few days ago? Are you looking forward to seeing the movie? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s X account.
