In a heated exchange that underscores the tense relationship between Hungary and Ukraine, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has publicly warned that Ukraine's potential accession to the European Union (EU) could spell disaster for the Hungarian economy. This warning comes amid a backdrop of rising tensions and a concerted smear campaign against Ukraine, aimed at swaying public opinion ahead of a vote on the matter.
The confrontation escalated on May 2, 2025, when Orban asserted that Ukraine's EU membership would lead to the bankruptcy of Hungary. He emphasized that without Hungary's consent, Ukraine stands no chance of joining the bloc. "Decisions regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU belong to Hungarians, not to Kyiv or Brussels," Orban stated, reinforcing his position that Hungary holds the key to Ukraine's EU aspirations.
In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to polls indicating that 70% of Hungarians support Ukraine's bid to join the EU, a claim he made during a press conference. However, the data he referenced was drawn from a study conducted by the opposition Tisza party, which actually reported a lower figure of 58% in favor of Ukraine's membership. Earlier surveys, such as one by the Hungarian newspaper Nepszava, revealed even less support, with only 47% backing the idea.
The war of words between the two leaders has intensified, with Zelensky arguing that the Hungarian public is aligned with Ukraine. He remarked, "70% support Ukraine's accession to the EU. This means that the people in Hungary are with us." Orban, however, dismissed these claims, asserting that the true sentiments of the Hungarian people would not be dictated by Zelensky or bureaucrats in Brussels.
Orban's rhetoric has grown increasingly sharp, with his government launching a campaign that portrays Ukraine as a hub for drug trafficking and organized crime. A recent video circulating in pro-government media depicts Ukraine as a dangerous entity, implying that its EU membership would unleash chaos upon Hungary. The video features ominous imagery and a narrator warning of the supposed threats posed by the Ukrainian mafia.
This campaign is not just a political maneuver; it is part of a broader strategy to galvanize opposition against Ukraine's EU membership. Hungarians have until June 20, 2025, to vote on whether they support or oppose Ukraine joining the EU, and the government is making no secret of its opposition.
Orban has long maintained a pro-Russian stance, and his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric has intensified in recent months. Analysts suggest that this shift is partly driven by domestic politics, as Orban faces increasing pressure from opposition leader Peter Magyar, who has gained popularity and is seen as a serious threat to Orban's rule. Magyar's party, Tisza, has been actively polling public opinion on various issues, including Ukraine's EU membership, and their findings have shown significant support for Ukraine among the populace.
In light of this, Orban's government has crafted a narrative that positions the Tisza party as a pawn of foreign interests, suggesting that they are being funded by "war-mongering Brussels" to undermine the "peaceful, pro-Hungarian government". This strategy aims to rally nationalistic sentiments among Hungarian voters, framing the EU's support for Ukraine as an existential threat to Hungary.
The Hungarian government's portrayal of Ukraine as a lawless, corrupt nation is not only aimed at discrediting its EU ambitions but also serves to distract from internal issues. Critics argue that Orban's administration has been plagued by corruption and has failed to address pressing domestic concerns, including economic challenges and public discontent.
In his weekly radio address on May 2, Orban reiterated his stance, stating, "Ukraine is a country that cannot sustain itself. If money does not flow from the West to Ukraine, that state will not exist." He further claimed that Ukrainians demand financial support from the EU, implying that they are ungrateful and aggressive in their expectations.
As the vote approaches, the Hungarian government is expected to ramp up its anti-Ukrainian messaging. Polls conducted by Nezöpont, a government-aligned research institute, predict that at least 67% of voters will oppose Ukraine's EU membership. This figure aligns with the government's narrative, suggesting a strong consensus against Ukraine's accession.
Historically, parts of western Ukraine were once part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Orban has occasionally invoked this history to stoke nationalist sentiments among Hungarians. His comments often hint at a desire for a return to a time when these territories were under Hungarian control, which resonates with a segment of the population that harbors revisionist dreams.
While Orban's government portrays Ukraine as a corrupt state, it has simultaneously shielded Russian oligarchs from EU sanctions, raising questions about its integrity. Critics argue that Hungary's own democratic shortcomings and corruption issues render it less credible in its criticism of Ukraine.
As the political landscape shifts in Hungary, the outcome of the upcoming vote on Ukraine's EU membership remains uncertain. Orban's campaign against Ukraine may serve as a temporary distraction from domestic issues, but it also risks deepening divisions within Hungary and complicating its relationship with its neighbors and the EU.
In the coming weeks, all eyes will be on Hungary as the nation grapples with its identity and future in relation to Ukraine and the broader European community. The stakes are high, and the implications of this vote could resonate far beyond Hungary's borders.
