The 2025 German federal election results indicate a significant political shift as the opposition leader Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) takes the lead, accompanied by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieving its strongest showing since World War II.
The election, held on February 23, 2025, saw exit polls from ARD and ZDF indicate support for Merz's Union bloc at around 28.5-29%, compared to the AfD at 19.5-20%, marking roughly double its performance from the previous election. Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) were anticipated to secure only 16-16.5% of the vote, their worst result since World War II.
"It will not be easy," Merz stated after early projections favored his party, emphasizing the magnitude of the tasks ahead. The election results reflect voter unrest, following the collapse of the coalition led by Scholz, which faced significant infighting and dissatisfaction among constituents.
Scholz, acknowledging his party's defeat, expressed, "The result is very bitter for the SPD. We have lost the election," underscoring the gravity of the situation for the center-left party.
Meanwhile, the AfD's performance is remarkable and noteworthy for its historical significance. Party leader Alice Weidel declared, "We have arrived as a party of the people," following exit polls indicating their newfound strength. This marks the party's best performance to date, signaling potential changes within the German political framework.
Compounding the complexity of coalition formations is the background of this election. The SPD, having garnered significant support previously, is now facing challenges reconciling its position and finding coalition partners, with Scholz opting out of negotiations for a government led by the CDU.
The environmentalist Greens, who were part of Scholz's coalition, find themselves with around 13.5% of the votes, which may impact their leverage moving forward. The hard-left Left Party has also secured 8.5-9% of the ballots, with the Free Democrats and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance hovering around the threshold needed to enter parliament.
Carsten Linnemann, CDU's general secretary, remarked, "One thing is clear: the Union has won the election," reflecting the sentiment of his party's newfound strength. The shifting political tide indicates Merz may have to engage with one or more partners to form a coalition government, which will require negotiations among parties with historically differing priorities.
Coalition existences often reflect the necessity for compromise, particularly when merging parties with starkly contrasting policy profiles. Despite their rising prominence, mainstream parties — including the CDU — have categorically dismissed the prospect of forming alliances with the AfD, citing the need to uphold democratic values.
"Germany is now facing a difficult task of forming a government," said Robert Habeck, the Green Chancellor candidate, foreshadowing the hurdles upcoming negotiations will likely face. With the election having taken place seven months earlier than previously scheduled, uncertainties loom large over Germany's future political alignment.
The 2025 German federal election results serve as not only a reflection of the electorate’s shifting sentiments but also as a monumental marker of potentiality for future governance structures. The coalition talks are bound to be complex, as Merz proposes to form alliances as quickly as possible to establish order after this tumultuous election period.
Montpellier, France remains the center of attention as European Union leaders prepare for their extraordinary summit on March 6 to discuss supporting Ukraine and security guarantees, all of which ties back to Germany's central role within NATO and the EU as Europe's largest economy. This election outcome is not just pivotal for Germany but also for the continent’s political climate as it responds to external pressures and growing challenges.