Opendoor Technologies delivered a jolt to the real estate sector this week, with its stock leaping 11.8% on Thursday to close at $3.60. The surge followed the release of July’s housing data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which offered a glimmer of optimism for a market that’s been stuck in the doldrums for years. The data, showing a 2% rise in existing home sales and a modest uptick in prices, helped Opendoor outpace both the broader market and its closest competitors. For a company specializing in instant home buying and selling, these numbers couldn’t have come at a better time.
The NAR’s July report landed like a welcome breeze after a long, chilly stretch for U.S. housing. According to NPR, existing home sales grew 2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million units. That’s still well below the heady days of the pandemic and even further from pre-pandemic highs, but it’s a step in the right direction. The median closing price crept up 0.2% to $422,000, setting a new record for July and reflecting a nationwide trend of slowly rising prices. However, as NPR noted, prices are softening in many regions, particularly the South and West, with Realtor.com reporting declines in 33 of the 50 largest metro areas.
Opendoor’s rally didn’t happen in a vacuum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell during Thursday’s session—down 0.4% and 0.34%, respectively—making Opendoor’s performance all the more striking. Trading volume for the stock reached 199 million shares, just under its three-month average, and the company’s market capitalization shot up to approximately $2.6 billion. In the past three months alone, Opendoor’s stock has skyrocketed by 386%.
What’s behind this meteoric rise? Some observers have chalked it up to speculative trading and the influence of retail investors. But podcast host Anthony Pompliano pushed back against the idea that Opendoor is just another “meme stock.” On his show and across social media, Pompliano argued, “Retail investors now function like a decentralized hedge fund.” He suggested that these traders are collaborating, sharing research, and collectively identifying promising opportunities—Opendoor being a prime example. His remarks echo a broader debate about the evolving power of online communities and their impact on individual stocks.
The positive housing data provided a shot in the arm for Opendoor and its digital-first business model. As more homes change hands, platforms like Opendoor stand to benefit from increased transaction volume. Offerpad Solutions, a key competitor, managed only a 2.3% rise to $1.34, while Zillow Group’s Class C shares edged up 0.4% to $81.40. The gap in performance suggests that investors see something special in Opendoor’s approach—or at least in its ability to capitalize on the current market mood.
But what’s really happening in the broader U.S. housing market? After a few years of stagnation, there are signs of thawing. The inventory of homes for sale hit 1.55 million units in July, up nearly 16% from a year earlier. That’s the highest level since the 2020 lockdowns, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “We now have the highest inventory since the 2020 lockdown period, essentially five years ago,” Yun said, as quoted by NPR. For buyers, this means more choices and a bit more negotiating power. For sellers, it’s a tougher slog—homes are taking an average of 28 days to sell, up from 24 days a year ago.
Still, the market remains sluggish. Prices have soared nearly 50% since before the pandemic, and mortgage rates—while down from their peaks—are still hovering around 6.6% for a 30-year loan. That’s the lowest rate since October 2024, and it’s sparked a wave of refinancing among homeowners with older, higher-rate mortgages. Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told NPR, “Our forecast is for rates to stay close to the 6.6% range, at least through the end of the year.” He added that the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting in September could influence rates further, but any anticipated cuts may already be baked into current rates.
The so-called “lock-in effect”—where homeowners with ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages are reluctant to move—has started to ease, albeit slightly. Yun noted, “We are still below pre-COVID [levels], but certainly we are no longer in that mortgage rate lock-in period. As people need to move, people are putting their homes on the market and making the next moves.” Even so, turnover remains sluggish, and many households are still stuck in homes that aren’t quite the right fit.
On the new construction front, the picture is mixed. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that housing starts in July were up 5% from the previous month, but building permits fell nearly 3%. Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, pointed to persistent affordability challenges, a shortage of skilled labor, and burdensome regulatory costs as major headwinds. “These headwinds were reflected in our latest builder survey, which indicates that affordability is the top challenge to the housing market,” Hughes said in a statement quoted by NPR.
For would-be buyers, the current landscape is a patchwork of challenges and opportunities. High prices and mortgage rates are keeping many on the sidelines, but the uptick in inventory and the prospect of lower rates could lure some back into the market. If the Federal Reserve does lower interest rates, as some anticipate, it could give the market another nudge—though, as Kan warned, expectations may already be factored into today’s rates.
Meanwhile, Opendoor’s outsized gains have refocused attention on the role of technology in real estate. The company’s platform, which promises a streamlined buying and selling process, seems well positioned to take advantage of the market’s gradual recovery. Whether its recent surge proves sustainable remains to be seen, but for now, the combination of improving sales data and a new breed of retail investor is giving Opendoor—and the sector as a whole—a much-needed boost.
All eyes will be on the next batch of housing data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. For now, though, a long-dormant market is showing signs of life, and Opendoor is riding the wave.
