TORONTO — The upcoming Ontario Provincial Election on February 27, 2025, is shaping up to be as eventful as it is contentious, with the leading parties—the Progressive Conservatives (PC), New Democratic Party (NDP), Ontario Liberal Party, and the Green Party—rolling out extensive campaign promises.
With just under three weeks until Ontarians head to the polls, the political atmosphere is charged. The Progressive Conservatives are pledging significant investments aimed at supporting businesses and infrastructure. On February 3, they announced plans for $10 billion to assist employers through tax deferrals and another $3 billion to relieve payroll taxes during the campaign. They also intend to allocate $15 billion over three years for capital projects, including much-needed upgrades to the Queen Elizabeth Way between Burlington and St. Catharines.
The NDP is making strides of its own, advocating for the removal of tolls on Highway 407 and introducing a federal-provincial income support program aimed at easing financial pressures caused by trade disputes. Party leader Marit Stiles insists on local procurement to bolster Ontario’s economy amid fears of U.S. tariffs impacting local jobs.
Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberal Party is proposing more immediate plans to attract healthcare professionals back to the province, offering $150,000 bonuses for Canadian doctors and nurses currently working outside Ontario who return to work here. Other Liberal initiatives include enhancing transit safety measures with additional special constables and funding for crisis intervention teams and infrastructure improvements.
The Green Party aims to address housing shortages by promoting new housing development policies, including allowances for fourplexes and mid-rise buildings along transit corridors. They also intend to eliminate development charges on smaller homes and land transfer taxes for first-time buyers, signaling their commitment to making housing more accessible.
These campaign developments come against the backdrop of low expectations for voter turnout. Observers are cautious, noting the last provincial election yielded only 44% participation, the lowest recorded turnout. This trend could potentially continue, as political scientists suggest voter frustration and competitiveness—two key drivers of higher turnout—don’t seem to align with the current political climate.
“If they’re angry about things and they want change, then they get out and vote,” remarked Randy Besco, a political science professor at the University of Toronto. His concerns are echoed by colleagues who point to Premier Doug Ford’s near-majority government status and the perception of minimal competition.
Another factor at play is the timing of the election. The decision to call for it nearly 1 1/2 years early has blindsided many Ontarians. Added to this is the mid-winter voting date; many prospective voters may be preoccupied with winter vacations and travel plans during February.
Elections Ontario's Chief Electoral Officer, Greg Essensa, noted the organization has prepared contingency plans to assist voters facing severe weather challenges. “We are working closely with local and provincial authorities to monitor the situation,” he assured, highlighting measures to facilitate voting access.
New polling data reveals the PC party hovering at 43% approval among decided voters, largely attributed to Ford's focus on tariffs and trade. This marks the highest approval ratings for the PCs in nearly a year, as new numbers show they have doubled their lead over the Ontario Liberals. While the Liberals currently hold significant support within Toronto, the overall party dynamic paints an uncertain path for their campaign leading up to Election Day.
Despite aims to energize voters, the NDP appears to be struggling with diminishing support, having plummeted to 16% from highs earlier this year, as detailed by analysts.
Adding to the complexity is the concurrent political chaos at the federal level, wherein Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to resign soon after the Liberal Party selects its new leader. This distraction could act to diminish focus on provincial matters, particularly among younger voters.
Candidates are actively engaging voters, similarly doing door-to-door pushes to increase their visibility and energize supporters. This campaign method marks a sharp turn from prior election approaches, as parties scramble to finalize nominations and solidify their platforms.
Voters are prompted to confirm their registration by February 17 to receive information cards detailing polling locations. The voting process is set to occur on February 27, with advance voting available from February 20 through February 22. Voters can choose to vote by mail, ensuring their preferences are accounted for, or at designated polling locations on voting day.
While the outcome of this election remains uncertain, the proposed initiatives and the overall political climate signal potential changes for Ontario. The next few weeks will be pivotal as candidates solidify their platforms and voters navigate the challenges of participating amid varied concerns.
This report is by The Canadian Press and has been updated as new information becomes available. The dynamics surrounding the Ontario provincial election are closely watched, as the decisions made on February 27 hold the potential to shape the province's future significantly.