BEIRUT - Online disinformation is proving to be one of the greatest threats to the fragile political transition occurring in Syria after the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. Following his defeat by the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in December 2024, analysts warn this digital warfare is poised to destabilize both social cohesion and the new order, impacting the delicate balance of power.
According to Bassam Alahmad, the CEO of Syrians for Truth and Justice, disinformation is becoming a "tool for instability" and is generating tensions between various communities across the country. He stated, "One of the main issues impacting social cohesion is disinformation." This phrase reflects the deep anxiety reverberated through the communities as disinformation campaigns spread rapidly online, threatening to sabotage the transitional government led by HTS.
HTS, previously affiliated with al-Qaeda, now finds itself at the helm of governance, marking the end of over five decades of Assad family rule. Their leadership brings its own challenges, including the complex task of unifying disparate rebel factions under one banner and addressing the fears of marginalized communities.
Disinformation is reportedly being driven by both domestic and foreign actors, with powers such as Russia, Iran, and Israel exploiting digital platforms to stir unrest. Zouhir Al-Shimale, communications director at independent fact-checker Verify Syria, highlighted, "Sophisticated campaigns, often orchestrated by geopolitical players like the pro-Assad regime, Iran, and China, exploit digital platforms to manipulate narratives, divide communities, and undermine democratic efforts.”
The rise of disinformation has also been marked by specific incidents. A viral video depicting Alawite shrine flames, believed to symbolize threats against Alawites, coincided with rising tensions and protests. Reports indicated unrest led by Alawite and Shiite minorities, who feel particularly vulnerable amid the transition. The Interior Ministry later clarified, stating the video was intended to incite sectarian strife.
Realizing the potential consequences of unmanageable narratives, it is imperative for the new government under Ahmad al-Sharaa to cultivate trust among the factions, particularly the minorities, once allied with Assad. The former jihadist leader, now transitioning to political authority, aims to reframe his regime's image—dressing formally and courting international legitimacy, seeking humanitarian and economic aid for rebuilding.
Born to Syrian exiles and initially rising through the ranks of jihadist groups, al-Sharaa's challenge is compounded by skeptics questioning his commitment to secular governance. The fear of revenge attacks against former regime loyalists looms large, with many communities grappling with anxieties about justice and accountability.
Al-Sharaa must also navigate the treacherous waters of local press; biases and political interference hamper accurate reporting, exacerbated by fears of violence inhibiting journalists from fulfilling their duties. Alahmad insists, "The local media don’t publish the truth; they publish propaganda." This lack of reliable news sources transforms the information environment, allowing disinformation to flourish unchecked.
Against this backdrop, the international community plays a pivotal role. Recently, the U.S. eased restrictions on humanitarian aid to Syria and dropped the $10 million bounty on al-Sharaa, indicating initial openness to engagement. Encouragingly, the European Union has announced plans to alleviate some sanctions. This shift offers hope but demands transparency and commitment to reform from al-Sharaa's government.
Andreas Krieg, from King’s College London, aptly described this precarious situation by asserting, "It’s the weaponized narratives more than disinformation. It’s the way external actors can stoke fears and mobilize communities against any potential new consensus in Syria." This sentiment encapsulates the uphill battle for the new government, as it strives to stem the tide of misinformation and forge unity.
With Ahmad al-Sharaa at the forefront of Syria's interim government, his administration's first test will be steering a divided nation toward stability—one where trust can replace fear and unity can rise from the ruins left by Assad's regime. The outlook remains uncertain, but the necessity for cohesive governance, free from the corrosive effects of disinformation, is evident.