The world’s largest producer of olive oil, Deoleo, has sent waves of relief through households everywhere! After months of soaring prices attributed to extreme weather conditions, producers are predicting a steep decline—prices could drop by as much as half from the previous record highs. This shift is especially great news for consumers who have watched their grocery bills balloon over the past year, as olive oil has become more like liquid gold than its usual status as a kitchen staple.
Over the past few years, Southern Europe has faced challenges like droughts and adverse weather conditions, leading to significantly reduced olive harvests. This crisis has historically pushed prices for olive oil approximately 150% higher since the end of 2021, with UK prices spiking from £4.70 per typical 500ml to £7.16 last December, according to the Office for National Statistics.
These price spikes have coincided with broader economic pressures, including dramatic inflation and rising energy costs, leaving many families feeling the pinch. Now, as the new harvest season approaches, Deoleo projects prices to stabilize. Miguel Angel Guzman, Deoleo’s chief sales officer, detailed the hopeful outlook, stating, “We are still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially for the higher quality oils, like extra virgin. Still, the outlook is positive for the coming months.”
According to Guzman, with conditions remaining favorable, the price adjustments are expected to begin between November and January and may continue well through 2025. Reports suggest Spain, which accounts for over 40% of the world’s olive oil production, could boost its production from 850,000 tonnes last year to approximately 1.4 million tonnes this year.
This promising news follows one of the most challenging periods the olive oil industry has faced. The International Olive Oil Council is optimistic, predicting improved harvests across Mediterranean countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Tunisia as they recover from weather-driven shortages. Guzman remarked on the significance of these shifts, noting the stark difference from previous years where shortages drove prices through the roof and prompted unusual incidents, even crime, within supermarkets.
While the industry appears to be moving toward stabilization, Guzman is careful to temper expectations. “Although there have been steps toward improvement, it would not be accurate to say the crisis is entirely over,” he emphasized. For now, at least, consumers can expect to see some light at the end of the tunnel as prices become more digestible and accessible than they have been for far too long.
This hopeful prediction offers just the kind of good news families need as they face the holiday season. With many now prioritizing their budgets more than ever, the prospect of affordable olive oil for cooking and holiday gatherings brings both relief and cheer, allowing kitchens everywhere to celebrate the festive season without breaking the bank on ingredients.
So, as families stock their pantries for the holiday season, they might also wonder what they can do with their favorite cooking oil. With price reductions on the horizon, consumers will have renewed opportunities to explore Mediterranean dishes or try their hands at elevated home-cooked meals, perhaps even dabbling with homemade dressings or dips. After all, olive oil is not just any cooking oil—it's revered for its flavor, health benefits, and versatility.
All eyes will remain on the harvest reports and weather patterns as the industry transitions from crisis mode back toward stability. With expected changes marking the end of one of the toughest chapters for olive oil production, consumers can look forward to more favorable prices— and hopefully, reaching for those bottles of "liquid gold" won’t feel like such a stretch on their wallets next time they do their grocery shopping!
