On May 10, 2025, the global oil market saw significant price movements as Brent crude oil rose to $63.87 per barrel, marking an increase of 1.62% or $1.02. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices climbed to $60.95 per barrel, up 1.69% or $1.01. This surge in oil prices comes amid a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations involving the United States and China.
U.S. President Donald Trump has recently emphasized the need for China to open its markets to American goods, describing an 80% tax on Chinese imports as 'reasonable.' This statement follows Trump's announcement of a tax reduction agreement concerning imported cars and steel from the UK, which has raised hopes for similar agreements with China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Ha Lap Phong in Switzerland on May 10, 2025, as part of these ongoing discussions.
Despite the optimistic outlook, the U.S. currently imposes a hefty 145% tax on imports from China. Recent customs data from China indicates that exports in April exceeded expectations, while the decline in imports has also softened, providing a glimmer of hope for Beijing ahead of crucial negotiations.
Compounding the situation, heightened tensions in the Middle East have contributed to the rise in oil prices. Nikos Tzabouras, a senior market analyst, noted that the Israeli army successfully intercepted a missile launched from Yemen aimed at its territory, just days after Oman brokered a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Houthi forces in Yemen, who claimed responsibility for the attack.
Adding to the complexities of global oil trade, the U.S. imposed sanctions on a third independent Chinese oil refinery for purchasing crude oil from Iran, coinciding with the upcoming fourth round of nuclear negotiations expected to take place in Oman. Analysts suggest that while oil prices are on the rise, the increase may be limited by OPEC+ plans to boost production. A recent Reuters survey indicated that OPEC's oil production slightly decreased in April due to declines in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq, overshadowing the planned increases from other members.
In domestic markets, retail gasoline prices in Vietnam were adjusted on May 10, 2025. According to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade, E5 RON 92 gasoline saw a decrease of 377 VND per liter, now priced at 18,777 VND, while RON 95 dropped by 407 VND to 19,179 VND. Diesel oil prices also fell, with diesel 0.05S down 550 VND to 16,809 VND, and kerosene decreasing by 623 VND to 16,941 VND. Additionally, the price of mazut oil 180CST 3.5S fell by 665 VND to 15,533 VND.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength, closing on May 9, 2025, with a weekly increase against major currencies such as the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and euro. The dollar's rise is largely attributed to market optimism following the completion of the U.S.-UK trade agreement and the impending U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Despite a slight dip of 0.01% against the Swiss franc, the USD recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains against it, closing at 0.83150 USD/franc. The euro has also struggled, experiencing its third consecutive week of decline against the dollar, although it saw a minor increase of 0.17% on May 9, reaching 1.125025 euro/USD. The dollar similarly rose against the Japanese yen, despite a decrease of 0.39% in the final session of the week, closing at 145.355 USD/yen.
In contrast, the dollar experienced a slight decrease against some Asian currencies, including a 0.02% drop against the Chinese yuan, which closed at 7.241 yuan/USD, despite still achieving a weekly increase. The Korean won saw a 0.12% increase against the dollar, settling at 1,395.86 won/USD.
President Trump announced the U.S.-UK trade agreement on May 8, maintaining a basic tax rate of 10% on British goods and allowing a quota of 100,000 vehicles annually to be exported to the U.S. at this preferential rate, instead of the previous 25% general tax rate. Analysts from Goldman Sachs have noted that the tariff war is entering a phase where policymakers are likely to show results, suggesting that high tariff levels may 'cool down.'
In reaction to the positive trade news, Bitcoin surged above the $100,000 mark, increasing by over 0.38% to reach 103,023.28 USD/BTC on May 9, 2025. The financial market's focus is now on the upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, set to begin on May 10, 2025, in Switzerland.
Detroit automakers have expressed concerns regarding the recent trade agreement between Trump and the UK, fearing it may put them at a disadvantage compared to foreign competitors. A lobbying group representing General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis voiced their disappointment, arguing that British automakers are receiving better treatment despite their vehicles containing minimal American components.
Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council, criticized the agreement, stating that it will now be cheaper to import a British car with little U.S. content than a USMCA-compliant car from Mexico or Canada. Trump negotiated a draft agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 10% of a car's value, reflecting the UK's tax on imported vehicles. However, this agreement applies only to the first 100,000 vehicles, with any exceeding that subject to full tax rates.
While the White House defended the agreement as beneficial for U.S. automakers, the political realities on both sides of the Atlantic have influenced the timing and nature of the deal. Both Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are under significant pressure, and the negotiations continue to evolve amid ongoing trade tensions.
As the global oil market reacts to these political and economic developments, the interplay between trade agreements, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions remains a critical focus for analysts and industry leaders alike.
