Oil prices dipped around 1% on April 21, 2025, as progress in nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran eased fears of supply disruptions from the key Middle Eastern oil producer. Brent crude futures fell by 70 cents, or 1.03%, to $67.26 per barrel, following a significant 3.2% gain on Thursday, April 17. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 68 cents, or 1.05%, to $64 per barrel after rising 3.54% in the previous session. The drop in oil prices came as markets were closed on Friday, April 18, for the Good Friday holiday, making April 17 the last trading day of the week.
On the same day, BSE Sensex and Nifty50, the Indian equity benchmark indices, continued their upward trend, with BSE Sensex crossing the 79,400 mark and Nifty50 above 24,100. At 11:21 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 79,396.30, up 843 points or 1.07%, while Nifty50 was at 24,121.20, up 270 points or 1.13%. The top gainers at this hour included IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, and SBI. Conversely, the top losers were Adani Ports SEZ, ITC, HUL, Nestle India, and Sun Pharma.
The markets displayed positive momentum last week, driven by optimism over tariff postponements and product exemptions, suggesting potential progress in trade-related discussions. This week, attention will pivot toward corporate results, with major firms such as HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Maruti set to release their quarterly figures.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, noted, "Even though the global economic scenario is mired in uncertainty, India appears relatively resilient. India is the only large economy which can grow at 6% even in a slowing global economy. This, along with the declining dollar, has the potential to attract more FPI inflows into India in the short run." He also mentioned that the Q4 results of HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank could propel Bank Nifty to all-time highs.
As early trading unfolded on April 21, 2025, U.S. stock-index futures and dollar values were on a downward trend, as market participants remained cautious amid ongoing trade discussions with Japan and the European Union, alongside President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve. Oil prices experienced a similar decline of approximately 1% on Monday, following progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions that alleviated worries about supply constraints from the significant oil-producing region.
Gold reached an all-time high on April 21, while the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest point in three years. Concerns regarding trade disputes between the U.S. and its primary trading partners fueled recession worries, leading investors to seek refuge in the precious metal. The U.S. dollar's significant decline on Monday reflected waning market confidence in the American economy, further exacerbated by President Trump's proposed reforms for the Federal Reserve, which raised questions about the central bank's autonomy.
In terms of foreign investments, foreign portfolio investors shifted to a net selling position at Rs 4,668 crore on Thursday, April 17. Domestic institutional investors, however, acquired shares worth Rs 2,006 crore on the same day. The net short position of foreign institutional investors decreased from Rs 86,069 crore on Wednesday, April 16, to Rs 83,273 crore on Thursday, April 17.
As the stock market opened on April 21, analysts speculated whether the Sensex and Nifty would continue their winning rally. The indices gained over 4% in the previous week, despite the market being affected by mixed cues and disappointing Q4 results from Infosys. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank reported strong quarterly results, which could help maintain momentum, but weak global signals could hold back gains.
As of 7:50 AM on April 21, Gift Nifty futures were trading at 23,823.5, showing a slight drop of 0.1% from Nifty50's last close of 23,851.65, hinting at a flat market opening. Stocks in focus for the day included Infosys, IndiGo, HDFC Bank, and others. Asian markets and U.S. stock futures were slightly down in early trade, with concerns surrounding trade tariffs and fresh public comments against the U.S. Federal Reserve by President Trump adding pressure to investor sentiment. However, the weakening U.S. dollar may support more foreign inflows into Indian markets in the near term.
In the context of the earnings season, investors are closely monitoring individual stocks. Over the weekend, HDFC Bank reported a profit rise of 6.7% year-on-year to Rs 17,616 crore, while ICICI Bank posted an 18% increase in net profit to Rs 12,630 crore for the quarter ending March 2025. The share prices of both banks surged last week, with HDFC Bank climbing 7.2% and ICICI Bank 5.5%, reaching all-time highs bolstered by expectations of higher interest margins and stronger earnings in the months ahead.
However, Infosys missed market expectations, reporting a 2% year-on-year revenue decline in the March quarter of 2025 and providing a weak outlook for the financial year 2026. The company cited ongoing global economic challenges, trade tensions, and cautious spending by clients as reasons for the slowdown, which could weigh on the IT sector and impact overall index performance.
According to Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP – Research & Advisory at Master Capital Services, the market is currently near a key resistance level between 23,800 and 24,000. If the index manages to surpass this range, it could potentially head towards 24,800. He added that the current uptrend is supported by strong trading volumes and momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI). "Buying on declines remains a viable strategy as long as the index stays above its key moving averages. However, if resistance persists at the 23,800–24,000 range and the market dips below its moving averages, the sentiment may shift towards a ‘sell on rise’ approach," he explained.
As market dynamics continue to evolve, investors are advised to remain vigilant and informed, particularly as key earnings reports and global economic signals unfold.
