In a year already marked by high-stakes political maneuvering, Republican leaders across several key states are launching aggressive efforts to redraw congressional maps—moves that could tip the balance of power in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. At the center of this redistricting storm are Ohio and Florida, where GOP lawmakers are responding both to legal requirements and to a direct push from former President Donald Trump to maximize Republican representation.
According to Democracy Docket, Ohio Republicans on September 10, 2025, established a new Joint Committee on Congressional Redistricting, setting the stage for a contentious remapping process. House Speaker Matt Huffman and Senate President Rob McColley appointed a dozen lawmakers to the committee, which is slated to hold its first meeting on September 22. The move comes as Ohio’s current congressional map—passed without sufficient bipartisan support—faces a constitutionally mandated expiration after the 2026 election.
Ohio Democrats, sensing both peril and opportunity, unveiled their own alternative on September 9. Their proposal would split Ohio’s 15 U.S. House seats into eight Republican-leaning and seven Democratic-leaning districts, a breakdown they argue mirrors statewide voter trends over the last decade. “This map does not unduly favor or disfavor any party or incumbent,” said Senate Minority Leader Nickie Antonio, as reported by Democracy Docket. “If our colleagues are committed to bipartisanship, then they must join in the urgency and pass a fair, constitutional plan by the end of the month.”
Republican leaders, however, have dismissed the Democratic plan as a “fantasy,” declining so far to release their own draft map. The stakes are high: Republicans currently hold 10 of Ohio’s 15 congressional seats and could squeeze out more under a favorable map, potentially bolstering the GOP’s already razor-thin majority in the U.S. House.
Ohio’s redistricting process is, at least on paper, more restrained than the aggressive mid-decade gerrymanders recently pushed through in Texas and Missouri. There, GOP-controlled legislatures redrew maps at President Trump’s urging, aiming to lock in House gains ahead of 2026—without any legal obligation to do so. In contrast, Ohio’s constitution requires lawmakers to attempt bipartisan consensus. Should that fail, a backup commission takes over, and if that too falters, Republicans can pass a map by simple majority—though it would only last for two general elections.
This structure is the result of a turbulent recent history. After the 2010 census, maps drawn by Ohio’s GOP-dominated legislature were struck down by the state Supreme Court as unconstitutional partisan gerrymanders—five times for state legislative maps and twice for congressional maps. In response, Ohio voters approved reforms in 2015 and 2018, imposing supermajority requirements and creating a bipartisan backup commission to curb such abuses. Still, critics say the process remains vulnerable to partisan gamesmanship. In 2023, for example, voters overwhelmingly rejected a GOP-backed measure that would have made it harder to pass citizen-led initiatives, a move widely seen as an attack on direct democracy.
The upcoming September 22 committee meeting will offer the first concrete glimpse of how Republicans intend to approach the remapping process—and whether they plan to honor the bipartisan spirit of Ohio’s constitutional reforms or follow the more aggressive tactics seen elsewhere.
Meanwhile, in Florida, the redistricting debate is heating up in response to a direct call from former President Trump. As reported by USA TODAY, Florida Republicans are considering a mid-decade redraw of their congressional map, following Trump’s directive to secure more GOP seats. Trump has been explicit about his goals, posting on his Truth Social platform, “More seats equals less Crime, a great Economy, and a STRONG SECOND AMENDMENT. It means Happiness and Peace.”
Florida’s situation is complicated by its Fair Districts constitutional standards, which explicitly prohibit partisan gerrymandering. House Speaker Daniel Perez, R-Miami, has announced plans for a newly formed Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting to meet in October, while the state Senate has yet to take formal steps. Governor Ron DeSantis, who played a pivotal role in shaping the current map in 2022 after vetoing a Legislature-drawn version he deemed racially gerrymandered, is backing the off-cycle redistricting push.
Florida’s 2022 map, crafted under DeSantis’ direction, eliminated a North Florida seat previously held by former U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat. The Florida Supreme Court, with five of its seven members appointed by DeSantis, upheld the map in July 2025, agreeing that the old boundaries likely constituted an illegal race-based gerrymander. The result? Republicans captured four additional seats in 2022 and now control 20 of Florida’s 28 U.S. House seats.
With the prospect of another redraw, as many as five Democratic-held seats are reportedly being eyed by Republicans for potential flipping in the next legislative session, which begins in January 2026. Yet, as Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida, told USA TODAY, “It’s illegal in Florida, what they’re trying to do. It would be hard to claim that partisan politics is not behind this.”
Public sentiment appears to be on Keith’s side. A new poll by Common Cause shows that 55% of Floridians oppose mid-decade redistricting, including 45% of Republicans. Only 36% of Republicans support another redraw, suggesting that GOP leaders may face resistance not just from Democrats and independents, but from within their own ranks.
Still, some Florida Republicans argue that redistricting may be necessary to correct what they claim are lingering violations of federal equal protection standards. South Florida’s Congressional District 20, for example, has a roughly 50% Black population and is the state’s most Democratic-leaning district; any attempt to reduce its minority voting share could have a domino effect, forcing the reworking of neighboring districts as well. Democratic consultant Matt Isbell cautioned that making Democratic seats more competitive could inadvertently risk Republican-held districts, creating “swingish” seats and potentially backfiring—a phenomenon known in political circles as a “dummymander.”
Adding to the drama, both Trump and DeSantis have floated the idea of a mid-decade U.S. Census that would exclude undocumented residents—a plan almost certain to face constitutional challenges and, according to experts like University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, unlikely to materialize. “Now, a mid-decade Census looks like a non-starter,” McDonald said. “The clock is already ticking on the 2026 election.”
Governor DeSantis, for his part, has blamed former President Biden for what he claims was an undercount in the 2020 Census that cost Florida a potential extra congressional seat. However, as USA TODAY notes, it was DeSantis and Florida Republicans who declined to fund census promotion efforts in 2019 and 2020.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the outcome of these redistricting battles in Ohio and Florida will be closely watched—not just by partisans eager to tip the scales, but by voters concerned about the fairness and legitimacy of American democracy. The coming months promise political fireworks, legal showdowns, and, perhaps, a few surprises as both states decide how much power to put in the hands of mapmakers—and which party will benefit most from the lines they draw.