Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has emerged as one of the key players in the artificial intelligence (AI) space, standing strong among technology stocks as anticipation mounts for its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report set for February 26. With growing market capitalization, Nvidia holds the position as the second-largest component of both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Investors and analysts alike are bracing for significant insights from Nvidia’s earnings, which could shape market sentiment going forward.
Over the past month, Nvidia’s stock has faced notable pressure, dropping 5.8% as of late February. The decline is marked by substantial volatility and uncertainty within the broader market, as highlighted by Wolfe Research’s Rob Ginsberg, who notes, “More pain is likely before these momentum names find their footing.” The market is feeling the effects of rising inflation, the potential for continued elevated interest rates, and heightening trade tensions, particularly with tariffs being discussed by the U.S. government.
One stark moment influencing investor sentiment occurred on January 27, when Nvidia experienced roughly $600 billion in stock market value loss. Analysts are particularly concerned about the emergence of DeepSeek, which built its AI reasoning model using cheaper alternatives to Nvidia’s high-end GPUs. This raises questions about future demand for Nvidia’s premium offerings.
Nevertheless, investors are optimistic as Nvidia has consistently exceeded earnings expectations. Analysts predict fiscal Q4 revenue growth to outpace the FactSet consensus of 72%, with expectations for earnings to grow by 59%. Notably, as retail investors poured more than $5.7 billion back onto Nvidia’s stock as of February 21—a figure reported by the Wall Street Journal—confidence remains high among bullish investors.
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s co-founder and CEO, maintains strong optimism about the company's future. Speaking with Yahoo! Finance, he deemed the stock's recent decline as merely an “overcorrection,” emphasizing the enduring demand for their processing capabilities as industries move from training AI models to post-training.
The upcoming earnings call not only serves as a platform for sharing financial results but is also expected to engage discussion on several fronts. Investors will be particularly interested in the easing of production bottlenecks associated with the advanced Blackwell architecture and how these developments can positively assess Nvidia’s gross margins moving forward.
Critical announcements will also revolve around the anticipated impacts of political issues, including those raised by trade tariffs under the Trump administration. Market rumors suggest increased U.S. chip export controls which could hamper revenue from key markets such as China. Huang is likely to address these geopolitical uncertainties during the call.
During the past quarters, Nvidia has shown remarkable revenue growth—having recorded 265.3% growth year-on-year for Q4 2023. This momentum, though starting to stagnate, has analysts watching closely for reversal signs. Analysts project Nvidia’s EPS for calendar 2026 to be $5.84, based on current metrics and expected enhancements.
Large tech firms like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—that often rely on Nvidia’s products to power their data centers—have indicated intentions to invest approximately $320 billion on infrastructure throughout 2025. This interaction between Nvidia’s performance and those of major cloud service providers underlines the ripple effects of upcoming earnings figures.
Analysts at Truist Securities have issued supportive ratings, estimating Nvidia’s stock value to see favorable consolidation around the NVL72 configuration and expecting strong guidance for the future. Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald reinforced their Buy ratings, anticipating revenue estimates exceeding previous guidance by approximately $1.8 billion, fueled by solid demand for the Blackwell series.
Truist anticipates management to discuss key developments within the earnings call, including next growth drivers beyond large language models, such as advancements in data processing and robotics. The analysis highlights Nvidia’s sustainable backlog filled with promise as the company navigates through market dynamics.
The consensus rating for Nvidia remains largely positive with 31 Buy and only two Hold recommendations presented by 33 Wall Street analysts. Current price targets average $179.77, indicating over 41% upside potential from the prevailing price levels.
The anticipation surrounding Nvidia’s performance on earnings day is palpable, with market observers acutely aware of the risks associated with any sign of weakness. A disappointing report could exacerbate current selloffs, but strong reports will likely reinstate investor confidence and catalyze renewed bullish momentum.
Despite the uncertainty ahead of the earnings report, there remains cautious optimism among investors and analysts who believe Nvidia’s innovations within the AI sector will continue to drive its success and market valuation. The coming days will undoubtedly serve as pivotal moments for the company's future.