The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is garnering increasing attention as global climate change reshapes shipping dynamics. Recent records indicate that the NSR now boasts one of the longest shipping seasons ever, primarily attributed to rising sea temperatures which have recorded significant highs over the past few months.
According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the average global ocean surface temperature topped 20.9648 degrees Celsius on July 31, overtaking the previous record established in 2016. The sustained upward trend in temperatures is reshaping maritime shipping, presenting challenges with rougher seas but also advantages through extended navigation periods along the NSR.
While climate change is a pivotal factor, geopolitical issues are also steering attention towards this Arctic route. With Russia relying on the Black Sea, particularly the port of Novorossiysk, to export approximately 60 million barrels of crude oil monthly, the recent military tensions have exacerbated the security environment in this region. Russia's withdrawal from the United Nations-backed agreement facilitating Ukrainian grain exports has aggravated the risks surrounding merchant shipping here, prompting Russia to consider the Northern Sea Route as a viable alternative for its energy exports.
Additionally, the European Union's ban on Russian oil imports implemented last December necessitated a shift in export strategies for the Kremlin. Russia has sought new markets for its oil, with China emerging as the primary buyer. Reports suggest that imports of Russian crude by China surged by 44% year-on-year in June, underlining the link between the NSR's future development and Russia's energy exports to China.
The logistics of the NSR benefit significantly from being shorter than traditional routes. The standard route through the Suez Canal stretches approximately 21,000 kilometers, while the NSR spans around 13,000 kilometers. This translates into drastically reduced shipping times, coupled with lower risks than those posed in the conflict-ridden Black Sea, making NSR an appealing choice for international shipping.
Despite its opportunities, navigating the NSR has proven contentious. Reports announced recent delays for two Aframax tankers attempting to traverse the route, losing valuable time due to ice-related obstacles. Russia, however, is moving forward with ambitious plans to develop the NSR further. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has earmarked $21 billion to enhance its infrastructure over the next 13 years, which includes the construction of 50 icebreakers and ice-class vessels, in addition to establishing new ports and implementing a satellite network.
Year on year, the statistics are revealing positive shifts. Russian freight traffic along this Arctic passage escalated from 4 million tonnes in 2014 to 34 million tonnes in 2022, with projections aimed at hitting 100 million tonnes by 2026 and a whopping 200 million tonnes by 2030. This growth aligns closely with easing ice conditions attributed to global warming, as regions within the Arctic traditionally dominated by thick, year-round ice are becoming increasingly navigable.
Record highs in temperature have indicated a growing accessibility of the NSR. The path was navigable without the need to enter ice zones for a record 88 days in 2021, with expectations that this window will continue to expand as climate patterns shift consequently. This year has already witnessed a marked rise in traffic, with observed flows nearly tripling those recorded in 2019.
Dylan Simpson, a freight analyst with Vortexa, noted the increasing frequency of Russian crude being shipped via the NSR, saying, "The last time we registered any flows of Russian crude via the NSR was from August to October of 2019. This year we have seen almost triple the 2019 flows via the NSR, starting in July this time." Moreover, the operation continues to expand through September, fueled by rising sea temperatures and decreasing ice concentration.
The significant operational shifts in using the NSR also aim to curtail costs associated with the Suez Canal, though experts have cautioned that the potential for ice-related damage to tankers remains a concern.
Recently, the bulk carrier Gingo made headlines by becoming the first Capesize vessel to traverse the NSR, accomplishing the journey from Murmansk to China in a mere 13 days, while moving an impressive cargo of 164,600 tonnes of iron ore concentrate. Notably, for the first time, a non-ice-strengthened Aframax tanker is reportedly making a transit from Murmansk to Ningbo in China along this route.
In yet another remarkable development, it has been suggested that liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gazprom facility at Portovaya in the Leningrad region is being supplied to China using this passage. These milestones highlight a crucial turning point for the NSR.
Amid all these shifts, discussions between India and Russia regarding new transport corridors have emerged, calling for exploration of both the NSR and maritime routes linking Vladivostok to Chennai. Training programs for Indian seafarers to operate in Polar and Arctic conditions are also in the pipeline. Officials speculate that future transports could include coking coal, oil, LNG, and fertilizers, which are abundantly sourced from the Russian Far East.
However, political and economic intent comes with considerable environmental risks. As shipping through the Arctic increases, concerns regarding potential ecological devastation heighten. Experts warn that the expansion of Arctic shipping trends towards the use of fossil fuels will result in heightened risks of oil spills, increased noise pollution underwater, and disruption of habitats critical for various Arctic species like seals and polar bears.
Sian Prior, the lead advisor for the Clean Arctic Alliance, voiced serious concerns, stating, "The rapid expansion of Arctic shipping traffic using fossil fuels and opening Arctic Sea routes to year-round navigation for transporting fossil fuels heightens the risk of spills and leakages, increases underwater noise pollution, and destroys ice ecosystems." She further underlined the urgency of moving away from fossil fuel reliance, explaining how the shipping sector has witnessed a staggering 150% increase in methane emissions between 2012 and 2018, alongside doubled black carbon emissions from Arctic ships from 2015 to 2021.
Amid the ongoing geopolitical and economic shifts, the looming challenge remains clear: Navigating the future of the NSR and the Arctic's logistics must tread lightly on environmental threads, ensuring the delicate balance of trade and ecology does not unravel catastrophically. As this Arctic route becomes more frequently navigated, the interconnections between climate, economy, and the environment must be closely monitored, with continuous advocacy towards sustainable practices.