Spring is just around the corner, and with it, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its weather outlook for March through May 2025.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the forecast indicates significant shifts across the United States concerning temperature and precipitation. The predictions come at a time when traditional groundhogs may have foreseen weeks of winter still looming, but NOAA is pivoting toward spring.
Overall, the agency is projecting significantly warmer temperatures across the South and East Coast. Specifically, there is between 50% to 60% chance of temperatures surpassing normal averages throughout the Southwest, Gulf States—including Florida and southern Georgia—and the entirety of the East Coast. Notably, even the northern parts of Alaska are expected to record warmer-than-usual temperatures this spring.
Conversely, the Northwest region looks set for cooler conditions. NOAA estimates there’s around a 40% to 50% chance of lower temperatures impacting northern sections of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. Most of the Midwest is expected to have average temperatures.
But the temperature isn't the only focus of NOAA’s outlook; precipitation levels also vary considerably across different regions. The agency highlights anticipation of drier conditions sweeping through the Southwest, where forecasts indicate between 50% to 60% chances of precipitation falling below normal. This projection suggests worsening drought conditions for states like Utah, New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, and western Colorado.
While drought looms over parts of the Southwest, the Northwest is expected to fare significantly differently. NOAA forecasts indicate about 40% to 50% chance of increased rainfall throughout the Northwest, Great Lakes, and Appalachia regions. Notably, these precipitation patterns can lead to higher instances of flooding, particularly as storm systems move through the area. The Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys are similarly forecasted to see above-average precipitation levels.
The report highlights as well how the broader climatic influences are shaping the upcoming weather patterns. Notably, La Niña, the climate pattern responsible for cooler-than-average temperatures, is still very much present as we head closer to spring, but forecasters are optimistic about the potential for transition to more neutral weather conditions with about 66% likelihood.
This shift is particularly significant as communities and individuals across the affected regions prepare for what the season may bring. Irrespective of La Niña's effects, it's clear the public will need to be prepared for possible weather extremes, including excessive heat or unexpected storms.
NOAA ensures these forecasts are grounded firmly within historical data, analyzing weather patterns from 1991 to 2020. Such information aids communities, farmers, and businesses alike to strategize based on what the meteorological conditions might entail over the coming months.
While Punxsutawney Phil may have prognosticated continued winter, NOAA’s spring outlook suggests it might be wise to pack away the heavy coats sooner rather than later. Prepare for warmer temperatures, fluctuated precipitation, and potential drought—spring 2025 is predicted to bring notable weather events to much of the country, affecting lives across the U.S.