The NCAA Tournament is the stage where dreams can turn to reality, and on Friday, March 21, the Maryland Terrapins will face off against the Grand Canyon University Antelopes as they kick off their March Madness campaign. This 4-seed versus 13-seed matchup promises to be electric, with the Terrapins (25-8) entering the tournament as favorites against the Antelopes (26-7), but the unpredictability of the tournament has fans on both sides buzzing.
Playing at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Maryland secured their spot with solid performances throughout the Big Ten season, finishing with a commendable 14-6 record. Under the guidance of head coach Kevin Willard, the Terps have been riding high, winning four of their last five games, including hard-fought victories against top-tier teams like Illinois and Michigan. Their most recent defeat was particularly narrow, losing by just one point against Michigan, indicating how close they are to peak performance.
But Grand Canyon should not be underestimated. The Antelopes are the reigning WAC champions and come with notable momentum, having won 15 of their last 17 matches. That included solid results throughout their conference campaign, finishing with a 13-3 record. The challenge for the Terps, aside from their seeding advantages, is dealing with Grand Canyon's unpredictable nature, which has seen them pull off surprising performances, including winning their first NCAA Tournament game last year.
Maryland's success largely hinges on its star freshman, Derik Queen, who has been outstanding this season, averaging 16.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. Following closely is senior forward Julian Reese, who adds 13.1 points and another 9.0 rebounds to the mix. The backcourt is led by Ja'Kobi Gillespie, showcasing stellar passing with 5.8 assists per game whilst maintaining solid control with only 1.9 turnovers on average. Together, these players compose what many fans call the “Crab Five,” a tight-knit lineup that's shown its effectiveness throughout the season.
Meanwhile, Grand Canyon relies hefty on its scoring leader, JaKobe Coles, who scores 14.8 points per game with impressive efficiency, shooting 52.1% from the field. The Antelopes balance their scoring across the roster, as they have four players averaging double figures. This distribution makes it challenging for the Terps’ defense to hone in on just one target. Duke Brennan is another name to keep on your radar, leading the Antelopes on the boards with 9.2 rebounds per game.
Despite these bright spots, Grand Canyon has shown some weaknesses on the three-point line, connecting on only 31.4% of their shots beyond the arc. They will need to improve on this aspect if they hope to genuinely challenge Maryland, which has allowed just 66.8 points per game and continues to rank among the best defensive teams.
Looking at betting odds, Maryland is perceived as the dominant team, opening as 11.5-point favorites, with BetMGM Sportsbook showing Maryland at -600 on the moneyline, versus Grand Canyon's +425. Predictions fluctuate, with some experts like the Arizona Republic favoring Grand Canyon, citing their streak and NCAA experience. Others, like Dimers, provide Maryland with an 83% win probability and predict the final score would be 82-71. FOX Sports leans more conservatively with Maryland winning 80-68. ESPN is particularly bullish on the Terps at 86.1% to come out victorious.
Historically, the 4 vs. 13 matchup is one of the most upsetting scenes during the tournament, with several instances of lower seeds defeating higher-ranked teams. The statistics show upsets like Yale’s victory over Auburn last year and five such upsets occurring over the past six tournaments. This backdrop adds intrigue to Friday's matchup, as both teams grapple with the pressure of the moment.
The fans at the Climate Pledge Arena will witness two teams heading down completely different paths this season but sharing one common goal: advancing to the next round. With Maryland aiming to make its mark again after last year's absence from the tournament, and Grand Canyon, seasoned by its prior tournament experience, challenging expectations, it’s bound to be evening filled with thrilling basketball. Both teams will try to establish their essence as they step onto the court on Friday.
Regardless of the outcome, anticipation pulses through the air as March Madness officially begins, but as the stakes rise, it will be the players on the court who determine their fates. Fans will want to hold on tightly to their seats. Will the Terrapins firmly establish their status, or will the Lopes carve out another chapter of surprising success? Only time will tell.
