The NHL is set to experience significant changes to its salary cap structure over the next three seasons, as revealed by the league and the NHL Players’ Association (NHLPA) on January 31, 2025. The current salary cap of $88 million is projected to jump sharply, raising to $95.5 million for the 2025-26 season, followed by increases to $104 million for the 2026-27 season, and landing at $113.5 million by 2027-28. This marks one of the most substantial shifts the league has seen since the implementation of the salary cap.
This ambitious forecast stems from the NHL's recovery from pandemic-induced financial challenges and reflects the league's burgeoning success. Last season, the NHL set record revenue at $6.2 billion, and with attendance figures and sponsorship revenues climbing, the environment has vastly improved since the tough times faced during COVID-19. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly emphasized the importance of predictability for teams and players, stating, "Both clubs and players have sought a certain level of predictability with respect to payroll ranges from year to year and over time for advance planning capabilities." He noted the hope for stable agreements, adding, “It’s not ‘absolute certainty,’ but maybe it’s the next best thing.”
This salary cap rise is particularly timely for several NHL franchises and players. With the current financial agreement set to expire at the end of the 2025-26 season, these updates are poised to influence upcoming negotiations and the dynamics of player contracts significantly. High-profile players such as Mitch Marner from the Toronto Maple Leafs and Mikko Rantanen of the Carolina Hurricanes will have their contracts expiring, setting the stage for potential lucrative deals if the cap grows as projected.
For the 2025-26 season, the salary cap ceiling will rise to $95.5 million from $88 million, with the floor also increasing from $65 million to $70.6 million. Following this, for 2026-27, the cap increases to $104 million, with the floor set at $76.9 million. By the 2027-28 season, the cap is expected to reach $113.5 million, with the lower limit at $83.9 million. This scaling adds clarity for teams as they plan budgets and roster moves, particularly as they approach the March 7 trade deadline.
This projected increase is also indicative of the NHL's efforts to share revenue fairly among its clubs. The strides made post-pandemic have allowed the league to not only bounce back but also to prepare for future growth. The expected increase suggests both sides, the NHL and the NHLPA, are optimistic about continuing their fruitful relationship, especially with preliminary discussions for the next collective bargaining agreement expected to start shortly. Daly's remarks about creating predictability amid these negotiations reflect the importance of establishing favorable terms for both players and owners.
Historically, the NHL salary cap has seen its ups and downs, particularly due to intervals of labor disputes. The current economic climate marks the first time the cap has been projected to rise dramatically after hovering around the same numbers for years. For example, the cap only increased from $81.5 million to $88 million from the pre-pandemic season of 2019-20 and was largely stagnant until now. Under the new projections, there is cautious optimism surrounding the potential for high earners to secure impressive contracts.
Looking back, the drops during the pandemic era meant franchises had to navigate financially constrained situations, often leading to difficult decisions around player contracts and trades. With the salary cap now rising again, clubs operating around the cap ceiling can begin to strategize for the future, potentially allowing them to secure their top talents more easily. The jump to $95.5 million, for example, gives the Edmonton Oilers more room to maneuver as they aim to retain star player Evan Bouchard, who is currently under contract but moving toward unrestricted free agency.
The NHL's prediction of salary cap increases will afford agents and teams clarity as they examine player contracts and deal structures. With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire, both sides are evidently motivated to find middle ground to maintain league stability. Taking steps to project future cap scenarios can lessen the anxiety involved with contract renewals and trade discussions.
Finally, as the league prepares for its next phase of growth, the focus will remain on balancing the needs of franchises with those of players. If past relationships and outcomes are any indication, both the NHL and NHLPA are hopeful for amicable agreements going forward. The brighter financial picture painted by these projections indicates not only recovery but also significant growth potential for the NHL.