NFL teams are gearing up for the franchise tag window, which allows them to retain the rights to one impending free agent through various tagging options. From February 18 to March 4, teams can deploy non-exclusive tags, exclusive franchise tags, or transition tags to players. This season marks significant changes as franchise tags have been effectively used to facilitate long-term contracts rather than merely serving as short-term safety nets. With seven of eight franchise-tagged players signing multiyear deals, the 2024 season displayed more favorable outcomes for players compared to earlier years, where only 45.8% of tagged players were able to secure long-term agreements.
The franchise tag has often received criticism because it may limit players' opportunities for long-term contracts, leaving them facing the risks of injury and poor performance on one-year deals. This season, though, the franchise tag appears to have returned to its original purpose, signaling possible futures filled with larger contracts for many star players. Moving forward, it is important for teams to understand how these tags function both financially and strategically.
The logistics of the franchise and transition tags can be convoluted, particularly when considering how salary figures are calculated. Prior to the 2011 NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, non-exclusive franchise tags averaged the five largest salaries at the player’s position or 120% of the previous year’s salary; whichever was higher. Currently, the calculation method has transformed. It is now based on the average salary cap percentage from the last five seasons, which is then applied to the upcoming salary cap for the next league year. This situation means the 2025 salary cap is projected, with estimates ranging from $265 million to $275 million, aligning with historical increases.
The non-exclusive tag allows players to negotiate with other teams. If signed by another team, the former club can match the offer or receive two first-round draft picks as compensation. Alternatively, the exclusive franchise tag prevents player negotiations, ensuring the player remains with their current team under more favorable terms. The update of recent years saw teams predominantly moving away from using transition tags, with the New England Patriots being one of the few organizations to implement this strategy after significant gaps of usage.
Heading toward 2025, early projections for franchise tags reveal some interesting situations. For example, the Cincinnati Bengals opted to keep wide receiver Tee Higgins under the franchise tag this year at $21.816 million. Should they opt to tag Higgins again next year, it would cost them approximately $26.2 million, following the 120% rule.
Another notable situation arises with Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, who is currently enjoying a breakout season. His contract could potentially reach around $40 million under the franchise tag next year. The Vikings find themselves with significant cap space, estimated upwards of $65 million, giving them the flexibility to strategize going forward without the burden of Darnold’s potential tag weighing heavily on their financial future.
On the flip side, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face difficult decisions moving forward. With Chris Godwin’s unpredictable injury recovery and imminent free agency, the team has to evaluate if applying the franchise tag for the third time is fiscally sound. Analysts suggest the franchise tag would yield Godwin substantial quarterback-level money, which could hinder the Buccaneers' roster flexibility. Despite his recent injury, Godwin was having one of the best years of his career, prompting questions about his long-term commitment to the team amid extensive interest from other franchises.
Other players generating early attention for the franchise tag include Kansas City Chiefs guard Trey Smith and the never-before-tagged interior offensive linemen, who may be entering the market under circumstances not favorable for franchise designs. The average estimates for franchise tags often fluctuate highly based on the specificity of positional needs. For example, Smith is projected to potentially earn around $23 million if tagged, above the average mark, particularly after seeing success from previous franchise-tagged guards.
With 2025 edging closer, players like Chris Godwin must weigh respective offers carefully against the backdrop of the franchise tag and determine whether their current organization can afford to keep them under such significant financial ties. The delicate balance of long-term contracts versus short-term risks through franchise tags continues to challenge players and organizations alike.
Negotiations are bound to be complicated this season as NFL teams recalibrate after observing how the franchise tag influenced many players' prospects this past year. The data accumulated from this exercise will undoubtedly shape strategic decisions made as interests realign with player performance and overall team composition.
Overall, with the countdown to the franchise tag period underway, the league anticipates tumultuous negotiations and monumental decisions. The approach teams take about franchise tags could impact the balance of power within the league significantly as clubs evaluate both immediate needs and future aspirations.
