As the United States edges closer to the 2028 presidential election season, a new national survey by Emerson College Polling, conducted August 25-26, 2025, offers a revealing snapshot of the American political landscape, voter priorities, and shifting allegiances. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 active registered voters, paints a complex picture of approval ratings, party primaries, and the issues dominating the minds of Americans as summer winds down.
President Donald Trump’s standing with the public continues to be a barometer for national sentiment. According to Emerson College Polling, President Trump’s job approval rating has slipped to 45%, down four points since January, with his disapproval rating ticking up to 47%, a six-point increase over the same period. This marks a one-point drop in approval since July, while disapproval has remained steady, reflecting a nation as divided as ever on its chief executive.
One flashpoint fueling this division is Trump’s decision to deploy the National Guard to 19 states to assist Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The move has polarized the electorate: 48% of voters disapprove of the deployment, while 44% approve, according to the poll. When the question was narrowed to specific cities, the split deepened. While 48% approved of sending troops to Washington, D.C., the same percentage disapproved of deploying them to Los Angeles, New York, or Boston. In Chicago, 47% disapproved of the National Guard’s presence. These numbers underscore an electorate wrestling with questions of security, federal power, and local autonomy.
Amid these national debates, California’s Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as a leading figure in the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential primary. Newsom’s support has surged to 25%, more than doubling from 12% in June. This 13-point leap is not just a statistical blip—it is a broad-based rise spanning key demographic groups. Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted, “Governor Newsom’s support surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%), an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both Black (9% to 23%) and White (10% to 24%) voters.”
Newsom’s closest competitors in the Democratic primary are former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg at 16%, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 11%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 5%, and both Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 4% each. The breadth of Newsom’s support signals a potential realignment within the party’s base, particularly among younger and minority voters.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance has consolidated his lead, with 52% of Republican voters backing him for the 2028 nomination. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 9%, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stands at 7%. The Republican field appears less fractured, with Vance commanding a majority and setting the stage for a potentially bruising general election.
When voters were asked to imagine a 2028 general election contest between Vance and Newsom, the result was a dead heat: both candidates secured 44% support, with 12% undecided. This marks a notable shift from July, when Vance led Newsom 45% to 42%. Kimball noted, “Newsom’s recent gains are driven largely by younger voters 18-29: after splitting this group in June (39% to 38%), he now holds a clear lead, 45% to 28%.” The youth vote, so often a wildcard in American politics, may prove decisive once again.
Beyond the presidential race, the poll delved into contentious state-level issues, such as congressional redistricting in California and Texas. Nationally, 56% of voters said California’s redistricting was a bad idea, while 44% approved. In Texas, 54% disapproved and 46% approved. However, partisan lines tell a more nuanced story: 77% of Texas Republicans support redistricting, compared to just 44% of their California counterparts. Meanwhile, 52% of California Democrats support redistricting, but only 21% do in Texas. These divides highlight the complex interplay of local politics, party identity, and national trends.
So, what issues are top of mind for voters? The economy remains the leading concern, cited by 33% of respondents—up two points since July. Threats to democracy follow at 24%, with immigration at 12% and healthcare at 9%. Financial anxieties are palpable: 41% of voters report their family’s finances are worse off than a year ago, a four-point increase since July. Only 28% say they are better off, down four points, while 31% see no change. These numbers echo the persistent economic unease and uncertainty gripping many American households.
On the policy front, national marijuana legalization continues to gain traction. Sixty-five percent of voters now support legalization, a five-point jump since October 2024. Kimball observed, “All age groups think national marijuana legalization is a good idea except those over 70, who think it is a bad idea 52% to 48%. Support is highest among voters under 30 (71%) and in their 40s (74%).” This generational split suggests that attitudes toward marijuana may continue to liberalize as younger voters become a larger share of the electorate.
With the NFL’s 2025-26 season opener set for September 4, football loyalties are also front and center. Ten percent of voters believe the Kansas City Chiefs will win the 2026 Super Bowl, while 7% favor the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles, 7% the Buffalo Bills, and 5% the Detroit Lions. Regional allegiances run deep: “Northeasterners are most confident in the defending champion Eagles repeating, with 20% expecting them to win another title. In the Midwest, regional loyalties show through, as more fans are backing the Lions (15%) and Packers (14%) than the Chiefs (11%),” Kimball said. Sports, it seems, provide a rare arena where partisanship gives way to hometown pride.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted using a robust methodology, including weighting by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census and voter file data. Data collection methods ranged from email and MMS-to-web text outreach to online panel interviews, ensuring broad representation. The credibility interval is +/- 3 percentage points, and all questions, results, and cross tabulations are available for public review.
As the nation looks ahead to 2028, the poll’s findings underscore a country in flux—politically, economically, and culturally. With candidates jockeying for position and voters weighing their options on everything from democracy to marijuana, the only certainty is that the coming years will be anything but dull.