The Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) has issued a stark warning regarding the recent tariffs imposed by the United States, predicting that these measures could threaten Arab non-oil exports by as much as $22 billion. The report highlights that several Arab nations, including Jordan, Bahrain, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia, are likely to be significantly affected by these new economic policies.
According to ESCWA, Jordan stands out as the most vulnerable among these countries, with approximately 25% of its total exports directed towards the American market. This heavy reliance on U.S. trade places Jordan in a precarious position, especially in light of the increasing protectionist measures from the U.S. government.
The tariffs, which were implemented on April 22, 2025, include a 10% duty on most Arab countries, with even higher rates imposed on specific nations: Syria faces a staggering 41%, Iraq 39%, Libya 31%, Algeria 20%, Tunisia 28%, and Jordan 20%. These measures are expected to exacerbate the economic challenges already faced by these countries, particularly in light of the recent decline in oil prices affecting the Gulf Cooperation Council nations.
Rola Dashti, the Executive Secretary of ESCWA, remarked, "The Arab region stands at a critical economic crossroads. While the immediate challenges posed by these tariffs are significant, they also present an unprecedented opportunity to build more resilient, diverse, and integrated economies across the Arab world." Her comments reflect a cautious optimism that the region can leverage these challenges to foster economic growth and diversification.
ESCWA's report indicates that trade relations between the Arab region and the United States have undergone significant transformations over the years. Notably, Arab exports to the U.S. plummeted from $91 billion in 2013—accounting for about 6% of the region's total exports—to just $48 billion by 2024, representing approximately 3.5% of total exports. This decline is largely attributed to a reduction in U.S. imports of crude oil and petroleum products.
However, the report also notes a positive trend in non-oil exports from Arab nations to the United States, which have nearly doubled during the same period, increasing from $14 billion to $22 billion. This growth indicates a burgeoning economic diversity that is now at risk due to the newly imposed tariffs.
In addition to Jordan, other countries such as Bahrain are facing substantial economic pressures, particularly due to their heavy reliance on exporting aluminum and chemicals to the U.S. market. The report warns that the re-export market in the United Arab Emirates, valued at approximately $10 billion, is also under threat from these tariffs, as goods from their original sources are subject to high customs duties.
ESCWA has also highlighted the broader implications of these tariffs on medium-income Arab countries, such as Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, and Tunisia. These nations are expected to incur additional financial burdens due to rising yields on sovereign bonds, with estimates suggesting they could face extra costs of around $114 million in 2025. Such financial strain may adversely affect their ability to fund social and developmental programs.
Kristalina Georgieva, the Director of the International Monetary Fund, echoed these concerns, warning that the global economy is facing significant risks due to what she termed the "re-establishment of protectionism" amid ongoing trade tensions. She emphasized that rising protectionist sentiments threaten productivity and innovation on a global scale.
As the region navigates these turbulent economic waters, ESCWA's report underscores the need for Arab countries to adapt and respond strategically to the changing trade landscape. While the tariffs present immediate challenges, they also offer a chance to rethink and reshape economic policies that could lead to greater resilience and sustainability.
In conclusion, the implications of the new U.S. tariffs on Arab non-oil exports are profound, with potential losses estimated at $22 billion. As countries like Jordan brace for impact, the call for economic diversification and strategic adaptation becomes more urgent than ever. The Arab region must harness this moment to foster growth and stability in an increasingly uncertain global economic environment.
