Volcanoes have long fascinated and terrified humanity, their unpredictable nature inspiring both awe and anxiety in those living nearby. In recent months, new research and expert commentary have shed light on the science behind volcanic hazards, from the sudden collapse of a volcano’s slopes to the potential for globally impactful eruptions. With advances in computational modeling and a deeper understanding of volcanic history, scientists are working to forecast these dramatic events more accurately—and to provide communities with the information they need to stay safe.
On October 3, 2025, a team led by Christelle Wauthier, associate professor in Penn State’s Department of Geosciences, published groundbreaking computational models in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. Their work focuses on the stability of volcano slopes, or flanks, and the risk these pose to nearby communities. According to Wauthier, “The input of magma below the volcano puts the crust under a tremendous amount of pressure—much stronger than water pressure. It’s exerting huge force on the rocks that can help destabilize the volcano and lead to collapse. But we don’t really know the exact conditions that would favor instability, and evaluating the triggering factors is quite complex.”
The danger posed by volcanoes isn’t limited to rivers of lava or clouds of choking ash. Sometimes, the very sides of a volcano can give way, unleashing landslides and, in coastal regions, massive tsunamis. The history books are full of such disasters. Take the infamous eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington State on May 18, 1980: the collapse of the mountain’s north slope triggered a catastrophic blast, killing 57 people and destroying 27 bridges and nearly 200 homes. Or consider the August 1883 eruption of Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau, which led to more than 36,000 deaths as tsunami waves over 100 feet high swept away dozens of villages. Even in recent memory, the December 2018 collapse and eruption at Anak Krakatau caused a tsunami that killed more than 400 people. As Wauthier and her colleagues found, the mountainside had been slipping for years before disaster struck.
To better predict such events, Wauthier’s team—including Judit Gonzalez-Santana, Jay Sui Tung, and Timothy Masterlark—developed models that analyze magma pressure and the angles of faults beneath volcanoes. Magma, the molten rock beneath the surface, can force movement along these faults, potentially triggering a collapse. Their research draws on real-world examples, such as the slip events in Hawaii, and evaluates how slopes respond to rising magma under different conditions. According to the study, “If you have an idea of which area of the volcano is more susceptible to collapse, you could place ground-based sensors such as seismometers or GPS to monitor a risky flank on a minute-to-minute or hour-to-hour basis well before a collapse happens.”
One key insight is that ground is more likely to give way on slopes with shallow fault dips beneath the surface, especially if magma is opening the crust under the volcano’s summit. Steeper flanks with more vertical fault dips can also be prone to instability. The team’s models emphasize the importance of topography—a factor often overlooked in previous studies. By accounting for the shape of the volcano and the geometry of faults, their approach offers a more nuanced picture of collapse risk.
This research isn’t just academic. As Wauthier points out, “This fundamental research can have useful applications to better assess specific collapse hazards and areas of the volcano that are more susceptible to instability. Over the long term, pushing this type of research could help volcano-adjacent communities by giving them time to prepare and evacuate ahead of a collapse if need be.” For those living in the shadow of active volcanoes, early warning could mean the difference between life and death.
Most explosive volcanoes form along subduction arcs, where one tectonic plate is being buried beneath another. Many of these volcanoes, such as those in Indonesia and along Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, sit close to coastlines, increasing the risk of tsunamis following a collapse. Even volcanoes in Hawaii, while less explosive, can still be unstable in places. Wauthier’s team hopes to further refine their models and test them under a variety of conditions, aiming to provide actionable guidance for monitoring and disaster preparedness.
While the risk of sudden collapse is a pressing concern for some volcanoes, other volcanic giants have captured the public imagination for a different reason: the fear of a catastrophic, world-ending eruption. Yellowstone National Park, with its iconic geysers and thermal pools, sits atop one of the planet’s most famous supervolcanoes—the Yellowstone Caldera. The sheer size and power of this volcanic system have led to speculation that a future eruption could trigger a global extinction event.
But should people living near Yellowstone lose sleep over the possibility? According to Mike Poland, lead scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, the answer is reassuring. Speaking to Cowboy State Daily, Poland explained, “A lava flow is the most likely form of any future activity,” adding, “and even that’s really unlikely.” In other words, while Yellowstone is an awe-inspiring geological feature, the odds of a humanity-ending eruption happening anytime soon are slim.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) backs up this cautious optimism. The agency estimates that Yellowstone last erupted between 70,000 and 180,000 years ago, producing large lava flows that may have stretched as wide as 144 miles. Even more dramatic eruptions occurred approximately 2.08 million, 1.3 million, and 631,000 years ago, averaging about one every 725,000 years. While these intervals are long, and the volcano’s behavior is not perfectly predictable, they do offer some peace of mind to the millions who live in the region surrounding the park.
Experts note that even if Yellowstone were to erupt, the most likely scenario would be a localized lava flow rather than a continent-shattering explosion. Previous eruptions have certainly been deadly for those in the immediate blast zone, but the gas and ash produced would pose the greatest risk to people farther afield. That said, the rarity of such events means that, for now, the park’s visitors and neighbors can enjoy its wonders without undue fear.
As our understanding of volcanoes deepens, thanks to both historical analysis and cutting-edge computational tools, the hope is that science will continue to offer both insight and reassurance. Whether it’s monitoring a risky flank with high-tech sensors or demystifying the threat of a supervolcano, researchers are working tirelessly to ensure that communities around the world are better prepared for whatever Earth’s restless giants may bring.
With new models and vigilant observation, the balance between awe and anxiety may finally tip in favor of safety and preparedness for those living in the shadows of volcanoes.
