The recent political shift in Syria has marked the beginning of a new chapter following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. With the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the newly proclaimed authority, the region's power dynamics have changed significantly. Experts and foreign officials are now closely analyzing how this development will impact international relations and the prospects for peace and security within Syria.
Al-Sharaa's emergence as the head of Syria denotes the culmination of HTS’s military accomplishments, which successfully displaced the Assad regime earlier this month. His leadership has already attracted the attention of various foreign delegations, including Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who recently visited Damascus. This meeting between Safadi and al-Sharaa signifies Jordan's proactive stance on engaging with Syria’s new government as the neighboring country grapples with the consequences of the civil war.
During events leading up to his visit, Jordan’s government reiterated its commitment to supporting the Syrian people’s aspirations. Government spokesman Mohamed Momani mentioned, “We side with the will of the brotherly Syrian people,” emphasizing the importance of stability and security at Jordan's southern border. This aligns with Jordan's broader strategic interests, particularly concerning the influx of Syrian refugees, security threats, and the stability necessary to return displaced persons safely.
Meanwhile, Iran, once Assad's closest ally, has distanced itself from the new Syrian regime. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei stated, “We have no direct contact with the ruling authority in Syria,” signaling Tehran’s apprehension about al-Sharaa's leadership and its implications for Iran’s influence in the region. Baqaei nonetheless affirmed Iran’s commitment to Syria’s sovereignty and cautioned against the country becoming “a haven for terrorism.” This emphasizes Tehran's careful balancing act as it seeks to maintain its regional ambitions.
Among Syria's diverse ethnic and religious communities, concerns have been raised about the prospect of retaliation and safety following the transition of power. Members of the Alawite community, who have historically profited under Assad’s regime, fear potential reprisals. Local citizens expressed this unease, with one Alawite stating, “Bashar was a traitor...He should have at least addressed people.” Such sentiments reflect the deep anxieties felt among those who held positions of power or employment under the former administration.
The situation is equally complex for other minorities, such as Christians and Druze, who worry about the future under HTS’s influence. A Christian lawyer, Youssef Sabbagh, articulated, “No one wants to live under dictatorship. But there is concern.” There is also cautious optimism among some minority groups, who have noted HTS’s outreach efforts to legitimize its governance approach, particularly with the Christian community where establishments continue to operate as they once did.
The international response has also been multi-faceted. Following the downfall of Assad, numerous foreign delegations have sought to establish their interests with al-Sharaa, including representatives from the U.S., Turkey, and most recently, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh’s engagement is significant, considering its previous support for the rebels opposing Assad and its recent diplomatic shift toward normalizing relations with Syria.
Dr. Azmi Bishara, General Director of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, remarked on the transitional phase, highlighting the need for careful handling of Syria’s complex societal composition to facilitate any potential move toward democratic governance. He observed, “One of the oddities of the Syrian regime is there is no deep state within it,” cautioning against the possibility of factional divisions destabilizing efforts to unify the country. His analysis stresses the key pillars for successful governance: consensus, the separation of the state from the ruling regime, and respect for human rights.
With various factions vying for influence, Bishara noted the potential for violence if key grievances remain unaddressed. He urged the new authority to prioritize transitional justice to heal the scars of war and thoroughly investigate past human rights abuses committed by both the regime and its opponents. “Without this approach, Syria would face multiple competing armies,” he cautioned.
Despite the significant challenges facing Syria's new leadership, the aftermath of the Assad era signifies both peril and potential. The coming weeks and months will determine if the country can navigate this delicate period without falling back to conflict or insecurity. The outlook among its diverse society remains cautious, as the people of Syria and the international community alike watch closely to see how the changes will materialize.
