Naheed Nenshi, the new leader of the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP), is stepping onto the political stage amid complex dynamics, presenting him with both opportunities and hurdles as he faces off against the United Conservative Party (UCP) led by Premier Danielle Smith.
Having previously served as the mayor of Calgary for more than a decade, Nenshi has made his entry back onto the political scene after Rachel Notley announced her resignation as leader of the Alberta NDP this past summer. His ambition, though, doesn't come without complications—namely, the formidable presence of Jagmeet Singh, the federal leader of the NDP. Singh, as articulated by many analysts, casts a long shadow over provincial NDP leaders across Canada because of the intertwined nature of party membership across federal and provincial levels.
Nenshi’s challenge is particularly acute as he navigates the political fallout from Smith’s recent legislative moves, including the introduction of the Alberta Sovereignty within A United Canada Act. This legislation is seen as an attempt to assert Alberta's interests against what the UCP describes as overreaching federal governance, especially concerning environmental regulations aimed at emissions reduction. Smith's rallying cry to unite against federal policies already made waves across Alberta's political atmosphere. "I would love to see the NDP finally stand up for Alberta and be on Team Alberta rather than Team Trudeau," she stated, immediately applying pressure on Nenshi to take sides.
The dilemma was clear—align with Smith and risk losing credibility with more progressive voters supportive of federal NDP leadership, or oppose the UCP and effectively oppose Alberta’s interests as Smith framed it. Such situations put Nenshi at risk of challenging Ottawa's influence, which could resonate poorly with the UCP's base.
This predicament highlights Nenshi’s struggle to define his leadership. Unlike his predecessor, Jason Kenney, who had clear themes of "jobs, economy, pipelines," Nenshi has yet to sharpen his own political messaging clearly. Pollster Janet Brown noted, "Albertans still don’t know what to make of him as leader of the NDP," emphasizing the need for sharper clarity from Nenshi’s new leadership as he attempts to move beyond name recognition as Calgary’s former mayor.
Despite the challenges he faces, Nenshi's leadership contest did initially generate excitement among Alberta's left-leaning electorate, creating momentum which the party desperately needed. Yet, this buzz has been difficult for him to sustain, especially without definitive messaging or strong policy proposals. His focus seems to revolve around five key principles: jobs, cost of living, health care, public education, and public safety. He has also positioned the UCP's governance as "reckless" and "dangerous," signaling his awareness of the uphill fight he faces against Smith's government.
The NDP's recent victory during the by-election for Lethbridge-West, albeit minor, provides hope for Nenshi's political fortunes as he asserts his party's viability to contest UCP dominance. "We’re talking about supporting the industry through the energy transition to make sure it is viable and creates jobs for the long term," Nenshi remarked, weaving economic concerns with visual support for Alberta’s energy sector.
Political scientists have weighed in on Nenshi’s situation as well. Professor Melanee Thomas from the University of Calgary highlights another complication: Nenshi does not currently hold a seat within the legislature. His lack of direct legislative presence hampers his ability to communicate effectively with voters, and he risks losing touch if he doesn’t step up his visibility. “You should have the songbook by the fall,” she reflected, hinting at the urgency for Nenshi to solidify his approach and message to the electorate.
His plans may include contesting the Edmonton-Strathcona by-election after Notley steps down, but to regain momentum and credibility, Nenshi needs to generate discussion about key issues within Alberta and pin down the NDP’s stance against perceived weaknesses of the UCP government.
With the political stage set and strategies still being formed, the future remains uncertain for Nenshi and the Alberta NDP. Political observers are waiting to see how he can meld his experiences and ambitions with the foundational ideologies of his party to carve out a productive path forward. The next steps will reveal how well he can balance the demands of party unity and the expectations of the electorate as he embarks on this complex political endeavor.
