U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping highlights the complex dynamics of U.S.-China relations as the two countries navigate through fluctuations marked by competitiveness, cooperation, and significant policy changes. This third face-to-face meeting between Biden and Xi punctuates years of diplomatic effort aimed at establishing what are referred to as "guardrails" to prevent tensions from spiraling out of control. But with the imminent return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the future of these diplomatic channels remains uncertain.
During this meeting, attended by both leaders following the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in Peru, Xi expressed China’s readiness to work with the new U.S. administration. He emphasized the need for stable relations, pointing out the importance of making what he termed “a wise choice” to manage differences. This outlook stems from concerns over Trump’s potential isolationist approach and hard-line policies aimed at China.
The backdrop is filled with apprehension among foreign policy experts who believe some of the diplomatic efforts established during Biden’s tenure may persist, albeit under different ideological influences. "If the Trump administration expresses interest in keeping open the channels of communication established during the Biden administration, Beijing will cooperate," observed Patricia Kim, of the Brookings Institution. This wait-and-see strategy reflects Beijing’s cautious expectations.
Experts predict there will be enough diplomatic safety barriers to maintain functional U.S.-China relations. Dan Blumenthal, from the American Enterprise Institute, speculates on Trump likely continuing certain diplomatic lines with Xi, favoring the establishment of communication channels even as the U.S. moves toward more competitive strategies.
The nuances of this can be traced back to prior interactions and agreements made during summits, such as the one near San Francisco prior to the Biden administration. Agreements from past engagements included reopening lines of military communication and addressing mutual concerns over issues like artificial intelligence and drugs such as fentanyl. These symbolic constructs point to both nations recognizing the necessity of reducing risks of inadvertent conflict.
Despite this, Xi has made it clear there are firm “red lines” which the U.S. must not cross, including Taiwan, democracy, human rights, and the integrity of China’s political systems. These warnings reflect both leaders' broader acknowledgment of the long-standing competitiveness defining F.U.S.-China relations, which many predict to continue extending through the Trump administration.
Interestingly, this moment of high diplomatic fervor contrasts sharply with the public perception within China, where Trump oscillates between being seen as unstable yet unpredictable. Young urban professionals express their nervousness about his potential tariffs, which may pose substantial threats to China’s export-driven economy.
Meanwhile, analysts indicate the possibility of the upcoming Trump administration adopting harsher policies aligned with his past stance. His choices for key administration roles include figures like Marco Rubio, who has consistently warned against the global threats posed by China's rise. Almost instinctively, China has noted these shifts, leading to preparations for what they see as some form of impending economic confrontation.
Xi’s assertive declarations about China’s military and geostrategic ambitions concerning Taiwan have stoked fears of imminent military action, especially under Trump's leadership. While he himself has downplayed the possibility of military engagement, citing his belief Xi understands his unpredictable tendencies, the bipartisan U.S. pressure to reinforce relations with Taiwan appears unlikely to wane significantly.
Trump's past statements, such as declaring his and Xi’s mutual admiration, add layers of complexity to the relations. The romanticized description of their bond starkly contrasts with the broader geopolitical realities of increasing military competitiveness, underscored by rising nuclear capabilities from both nations as each strategizes their respective positions.
China is rapidly advancing its military objectives, raising concerns of growing global nuclear threats as both countries engage mutually exclusive development paths—each feverishly working to build and modernize their respective military arsenals. The stakes heighten significantly against the backdrop of a world recovering from the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic which unfolded within their initial diplomatic endeavors.
By examining the intertwined personal and political narratives between Trump and Xi, observers can draw parallels between their respective visions for their nations—both steeped in national pride, with Trump pledging to “Make America Great Again” and Xi harboring ambitions for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Yet as both navigate through this tangled relationship, the sheer unpredictability shaping their encounters raises urgent questions about the direction and environment underlying future U.S.-China relations. The time will tell if the purported diplomatic 'guardrails' can withstand the pressures of isolationist policy trends and rising militarism on both sides.
