As the Major League Baseball season edges toward its midpoint, the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres are set to open a pivotal three-game series Monday night at Petco Park. Both teams are navigating challenging stretches, with the Nationals trying to climb out of a deep slump and the Padres aiming to solidify their position in the National League Wild Card race.
The Nationals, holding a 32-46 record, have endured a tough run of form, dropping 13 of their last 15 games. Their recent 2-1 series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers was marked by a high-octane finale where they fell 13-7 despite holding a commanding 3-0 lead in the fifth inning. This collapse highlighted the Nationals' ongoing inconsistency, even as their offense showed flashes of potency.
On the other side, the Padres (42-35) have also struggled with consistency, winning just four of their last eleven games. However, they snapped a four-game losing streak by taking two of three from the Kansas City Royals this past weekend, including a gritty 3-2 win on Sunday. Second baseman Jose Iglesias was instrumental in that victory, delivering a two-run pinch-hit single to erase a deficit and later driving in the game-winning run with a ninth-inning groundout.
Monday's pitching matchup features the Nationals' left-hander Mitchell Parker against the Padres' right-hander Stephen Kolek. Parker, who is making his 16th start of the season, carries a 4-8 record with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. His last outing was a solid effort against the Rockies, allowing just one earned run over six innings while striking out eight. Despite this, Parker has struggled on the road this season, posting an 0-4 record with a 5.93 ERA in six starts away from home. His career history against San Diego is rough, having surrendered six earned runs over three innings in his only previous start against the Padres last year.
Kolek, meanwhile, has a 3-2 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP through 52 2/3 innings in 2025. His last start resulted in a no-decision after allowing three earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Dodgers. At home, however, Kolek's numbers have been less encouraging, with a 9.58 ERA across two starts. Historically, the right-hander has been effective against right-handed batters but vulnerable to lefties, who are batting .293 with a .390 on-base percentage and .495 slugging percentage against him this season.
This pitching split is particularly significant given the Nationals’ lineup composition. Washington is expected to field a heavily left-handed batting order, including switch-hitters Josh Bell and Keibert Ruiz, as well as young star James Wood. Wood, in particular, has been a revelation in 2025, slashing .320/.387/.541 with a .400 weighted on-base average over his last 204 plate appearances. Against right-handed pitching this season, Wood boasts a staggering 171 wRC+, ranking sixth among qualified hitters in baseball. His power is notable too, with 21 home runs tying him for sixth overall in the league and a 32% home run-to-fly ball ratio. The Nationals’ left-handed hitters could exploit Kolek’s struggles against southpaws, making the matchup intriguing.
The Padres have shown a clear split in offensive performance depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Against right-handed pitchers, San Diego’s lineup has been above average, sporting a .316 weighted on-base average and a 104 weighted runs created plus. However, their production drops sharply against left-handers, with a .118 isolated power ranking 24th in MLB and an 83 wRC+, placing them 20th. Manny Machado stands out as an exception; since early May, he has hit a scorching .320/.387/.541 with a .400 wOBA. Against lefties in that span, Machado's isolated power is an impressive .340 with a 170 wRC+, making him a key threat for the Nationals to contain.
From a betting perspective, the Padres enter as favorites with moneyline odds around -175 and run line odds of -1.5 at +116, while the Nationals are priced at about +146 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line at -140. The over/under total runs line is set near 8.5, reflecting expectations for a moderately high-scoring game given the inconsistencies on both pitching staffs.
Experts suggest that the Nationals’ lineup, particularly their left-handed bats, could capitalize on Kolek’s vulnerability to southpaws, while Parker’s recent form and struggles on the road temper expectations for Washington’s pitching. The Padres’ bullpen, however, has been shaky, which could keep the game competitive. The Nationals have lost each of Parker’s last five starts, often by multiple runs, and he has surrendered four or more earned runs in six of his past ten outings, indicating potential challenges on the mound.
Meanwhile, Kolek has allowed three or more earned runs in his last two starts, suggesting that the game could be a high-scoring affair. Given these factors, betting on the over 8.5 runs is a popular pick among analysts. Additionally, the Padres are favored to win by a narrow margin, with some experts recommending a play on Padres -1.5 at plus odds, while others see value in the Nationals’ +1.5 run line due to San Diego’s bullpen concerns and Washington’s potent lineup against right-handed pitching.
Beyond the immediate pitching duel, James Wood is attracting attention as a prop bet candidate to hit a home run, with odds around +390 on FanDuel. Wood’s power surge and elite exit velocities make him a player to watch in this series, especially in a pitcher-friendly park like Petco where long balls can be game-changers.
As the series unfolds, the Nationals will be looking to build on their recent offensive sparks and break free from their prolonged slump. The Padres, meanwhile, aim to maintain momentum and keep their playoff hopes alive in a competitive NL West. With both teams showing vulnerabilities and strengths, the Monday night matchup promises to be a compelling contest filled with strategic pitching matchups and key offensive battles.
Fans can catch the action live starting at 9:40 p.m. ET on the Padres Television Network and MASN 2. Whether you’re tuning in for the pitching duel, the power hitting, or the evolving playoff implications, this series opener is set to deliver plenty of drama and excitement as both teams fight for crucial wins.
