The National Rally (RN) has escalated its rhetoric surrounding the government's 2025 budget, threatening censure against Prime Minister François Bayrou if certain conditions are met. This tension, which has captured media attention and raised urgent questions within political circles, centers on Article 4 of the proposed financial law.
On January 30, 2025, members of the RN met with representatives from various parties during sessions of the mixed joint commission known as the CMP. At the heart of these discussions was the contentious Article 4, which the RN vehemently opposes due to its provisions for regulating nuclear electricity prices. RN member Jean-Philippe Tanguy articulated the party's concerns, emphasizing the potential consequences for both households and businesses if the article is adopted as part of the budgetary framework.
“Article 4 continues and aggravates European pricing rules on electricity,” Tanguy remarked during his press engagements. “It installs electricity prices at unsustainable levels for households and suicidal for businesses.” Such strong language reflects the RN's broader critique of the current government's economic strategies and raises alarm about potential repercussions for the electorate.
The RN's threat of censure is not simply rhetoric but underlines serious concerns about governance and fiscal responsibility. Reports indicate Tanguy warned, “The adoption of this article will lead the RN group to vote for censure against François Bayrou due to the probable activation of article 49-3 to pass the budget next week.” This constitutional mechanism allows the government to bypass votes within the National Assembly, intensifying the stakes for the RN as it seeks to uphold its anti-establishment stance.
Interestingly, this political maneuvering appears to benefit the Socialist Party (PS), which has also issued its own warnings of censure against the government. PS representative Philippe Brun indicated, “There will be censure in the hemicycle if there is no 'openness' to the left.” The interplay between the RN's aggressive posturing and the PS's calls for negotiation demonstrates how opposition factions are leveraging each other's threats to assert power and gain concessions.
Following eleven hours of negotiations on the budget, there seems to be some progress on various issues related to revenue generation, but the specter of censure looms large. The Socialists have secured some concessions from the government, including the reinstatement of 4,000 teaching positions and additional funding for environmental initiatives. Nevertheless, the proposed cuts to medical assistance, which the RN may support, complicate the broader picture.
Tanguy's statement about the RN's serious threat resonates throughout the discussions, as it reflects not just party ideology but is also indicative of broader concerns over household finances and corporate stability under new electricity pricing policies. The RN’s perspective—that the government's choices could lead to detrimental economic outcomes—echoes the sentiments of many voters who feel squeezed by rising costs.
The intensity of the current negotiations reveals the fragility of governmental coalitions and the highly charged environment of French politics, especially as the budget is closely linked to the everyday lives of citizens. The CMP's objective is to reconcile differences between the Senate and the National Assembly, aiming for consensus on the budgetary proposal before it is presented for ratification next week.
With both the RN and PS signaling their commitment to censure, the government is faced with the challenge of garnering support from undecided factions within the Assembly. The dynamics shift continuously, particularly with the potential use of article 49-3. The looming question remains whether Bayrou's government can navigate these treacherous waters without incurring more significant political losses.
With the budget’s fate hanging by a thread, it will be important to watch how these discussions evolve and whether the RN will act on its threat of censure should its demands not be met. The upcoming assembly sessions will undoubtedly generate additional drama as political strategies and pressures intensify.