Nasa has predicted the potential threat from asteroid 2024 YR4, stating there exists the possibility of this Big Ben-sized asteroid impacting the Moon. Initially, fears loomed about its chance of colliding with Earth, estimated at 20 percent by April. Fortunately, the latest forecasts indicate this asteroid will sail past our planet with 167,000 miles of clearance. Currently, the odds of it hitting Earth stand at just 1-in-37,000, marking a significant decrease from earlier probabilities.
Even with favorable news for Earth, the Moon could face greater risks, with its impact probability now soaring to 1-in-55. Experts believe this likelihood will continue to grow over the coming weeks. A Nasa spokesman indicated, "There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon." Dr. Vishnu Reddy, manager of the International Asteroid Warning Network, added, "The most likely outcome is... the Moon IP (impact probability) will peak at some point and then start to drop quickly."
If the asteroid strikes the Moon, experts like David Rankin, operations engineer for the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, suggest Earth would largely remain unaffected. Rankin stated, "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out... but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat." He believes any collision on the Moon would be spectacular, likely visible from Earth.
Astronomers first detected the asteroid speeding toward Earth back in December and immediately prioritized it on their risk list. This asteroid has been graded approximately level three on the Torino scale, indicating it warranted close monitoring due to its significant potential for localized damage.
The unpredictability of the asteroid's path has kept scientists on their toes, with Nasa frequently revising its calculated trajectories. Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at MIT and creator of the Torino scale, explained, "When we first discover an asteroid, we see only a tiny piece of its orbital path. It is not unusual for the probability numbers to bounce around a bit, simply because the amount of data in the first few weeks and months is usually quite limited." Such adjustments reflect the complex nature of tracking celestial bodies.
Scientists estimate the 2024 YR4 asteroid to measure between 130 to 300 feet wide. Should it collide with Earth, the impact would be akin to unleashing eight million tonnes of TNT energy, resulting in the creation of a crater reaching 1.2 miles wide. The potential impact zone includes densely populated urban areas such as Mumbai, Lagos, and Bogotá.
Despite initial concerns about the collision threat to Earth, Nasa regarded the scenario as "an invaluable opportunity" to refine and test the effectiveness of the planet's defense mechanisms against asteroid threats. Various theoretical methods to deflect the asteroid have been considered, including nuclear options, solar lasers, and the use of rockets.
For those closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, there's more to look forward to. The asteroid is scheduled to pass Earth again by 2028, with thorough observations planned before its expected return to our vicinity in 2032. Each encounter provides more chances to gather data and improve risk assessments.
Importantly, the situation with 2024 YR4 contrasts with earlier alarming predictions, emphasizing the fluid nature of asteroid tracking and the valuable insights gained through close observation. Whether for immediate threats or long-term research, the continued vigilance and collaboration among astronomers and space agencies are proving to be key aspects of planetary defense efforts.