NASA has officially ruled out any risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, following fresh observations on February 23, 2025. Initially considered one of the most significant impact risks ever recorded, the asteroid’s probability of hitting Earth has now dropped to zero.
From High Alert to No Risk
Earlier calculations had placed asteroid 2024 YR4 at Level 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating the need for close monitoring. At the time, scientists estimated the asteroid had about a 1 in 32 chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Based on continuous tracking and analysis, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) found the impact probability to be just 1 in 20,000. Consequently, the asteroid has been downgraded to Torino Scale Level Zero, which indicates it poses no danger to our planet.
Experts say the initial concern stemmed from limited data. Astronomer David Rankin from the Catalina Sky Survey explained, "Minor tracking inaccuracies in the early observations could exaggerate impact probabilities." He likened this to adjusting a long stick by just inches, causing significant shifts at the far end. With improved models and data, the planetary defense community was able to quickly reevaluate the risk.
Close, But Not Too Close: The 2032 Flyby
Although 2024 YR4 will pass within 167,000 miles of Earth during its flyby, this is deemed safe, as no collision risk remains. Measuring around 50 meters, the asteroid is significant enough to be labeled as a potential "city killer"; nonetheless, it will continue its path without endangering Earth.
NASA’s press release stated, "When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032." The agency noted how continuous observations allowed for more precise models of its future path, assuring us of little risk for the next century.
The statement continued, "The latest observations have reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectories, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth." Interestingly, NASA mentions there remains just a 1.7 percent chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon on the same date, which is still considered negligible.
Space Monitoring Works!
With asteroid 2024 YR4 now classified as harmless, Earth can breathe easy—at least for now. The agency plans to keep monitoring the asteroid for additional surveillance opportunities, stating, "While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided invaluable opportunities for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes."
Renowned astronomer Richard Binzel, creator of the Torino Scale used to gauge the potential danger posed by asteroids, expressed relief at the findings, stating, "I'm pleasantly surprised...because it was going to go to zero." He emphasized the importance of quickly resolving uncertainties, saying, "It would not have done anyone any good to have this probability hang around for a long time. Any number in between is just the space of your uncertainty."
Initially spotted by telescopes on December 27, asteroid 2024 YR4 stands at approximately 40m to 90m across—about the size of a large building. If it had collided with Earth, the consequences could be catastrophic, but thanks to continuous observation and rapid recalculations, we can rest assured of our safety.
NASA has indicated they will continue to monitor similar near-Earth objects closely moving forward, aiming to provide timely and accurate assessments to prevent any future risks.
For now, the planetary defense community breathes a sigh of relief. With methodologies refined, and more sophisticated tracking techniques developed, humanity has gained invaluable insights and tools to address celestial threats.