NASA has issued warnings following the prediction of asteroid 2024 YR4, which carries a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This substantial announcement by the agency has initiated global planetary defense procedures, drawing attention from astronomers and experts worldwide.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, using Chile's ATLAS telescope, asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 40 to 100 meters wide and weighs approximately 220 million kilograms. While its size pales in comparison to historic threats—like the asteroid believed to have caused the mass extinction of the dinosaurs at about 10 kilometers wide—it still possesses enough potential to wreak havoc on large urban areas.
“The first thing to stress here is – don’t panic!” asserts Jonti Horner, an astronomer at the University of Southern Queensland. “This might seem like a alarming situation, but it serves as an excellent demonstration of the proactive approach we take when detecting potentially harmful asteroids.”
The asteroid’s calculated risk has prompted the monitoring efforts of two major international response teams: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), chaired by NASA, and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), chaired by the European Space Agency. These groups are actively engaged, keeping close tabs on the asteroid’s future path as new observations emerge.
According to the European Space Agency, “Asteroid 2024 YR4 has almost 99 percent chance of safely passing Earth on December 22, 2032,” though they noted, “a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out.”
Despite the relatively low odds, the asteroid has become Earth's most significant impact threat observed over the last two decades, warranting extensive global attention. With various telescopes around the world gathering fresh data, astronomers are attempting to refine the asteroid's orbital path and determine the exact course it may take.
Expert Davide Farnocchia, who leads the technical operations at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, reassures the public, stating, “There should be no panic or great concern about this object. It’s just one of those things we monitor closely because, well, we can.”
What’s remarkable is the asteroid’s discovery coinciding with the recent success of NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully smashed a spacecraft against another asteroid to alter its course—a proof-of-concept exercise. While the technologies now exist to deflect potentially hazardous asteroids, the efficacy and legality of deploying these technologies on international levels remains largely uncharted.
“Asteroid 2024 YR4 is significant… because it highlights the need for global collaboration on establishing effective planetary defense strategies,” emphasizes Evie Kendal from the Ethical, Legal and Social Implications of Emerging Technologies research group at Swinburne University of Technology. Kendal acknowledges existing methods, including the potential use of nuclear technologies and kinetic impactors, but asserts: “ethico-legal governance issues for if and how we should deploy such systems are still unresolved.”
NASA officials remain hopeful as the predictions surrounding 2024 YR4 evolve with each passing day. Like many potential impacts from space, opportunities for observation often wane, posing challenges for comprehensive analysis. Experts have estimated the asteroid will not be observable again until 2028—an additional reason for heightened vigilance during its current visibility period.
Horner concludes with optimism, reminding the public of the impressive collaboration among global agencies: “Each discovery reminds us of our vulnerabilities but also of our capability to respond. Asteroid 2024 YR4, though unsettling, is sadly just another reminder of how significant international collaboration is.”