When Narendra Modi touches down in Moscow this Monday, it won’t just be any visit. This trip carries layers of significance, marking the Indian Prime Minister’s first journey to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. Modi, recently elected for a rare third term, will meet with President Vladimir Putin, seeking to both bolster traditional ties and navigate new geopolitical complexities.
The stakes are particularly high. India and Russia share a long-time partnership dating back to the Cold War era. Defense, trade, and energy are key areas of cooperation, and Modi’s diplomatic mission will address a wide range of issues, from bilateral relations to the broader international agenda.
But why is this visit so critical? India's prime minister is expected to discuss the status of India’s nationals allegedly misled into joining the Russian army. The Indian Foreign Secretary recently highlighted concerns over what has been termed a “major human trafficking network.” With Indian nationals inadvertently caught up in the conflict, their return home is a priority.
The Ukraine war has undoubtedly strained international relationships, and India's position in this geopolitical drama is unique. While New Delhi has refrained from outright condemnation of Russia, Modi has previously denounced the killing of civilians in Ukraine. The delicate balance India maintains is reflective of its multi-polar foreign policy. Former Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal noted that neither India nor the global south view Putin as an international pariah. Nonetheless, there's a clear push from India for both sides to end the conflict.
India’s economic relationship with Russia is another layer to this diplomatic puzzle. The two nations' trade reached an all-time high of $65.7 billion in the financial year ending in March 2024. Yet, as India's exports to Russia remain relatively low compared to imports, there's a need for a more balanced trade relationship—a topic likely to feature prominently in their discussions.
Interestingly, India's purchase of discounted Russian oil since the onset of the Ukraine war has drawn mixed reactions globally. While some view it as New Delhi exploiting Europe’s crises for profit, it also underscores India’s strategic pursuit of energy security. The complexities don’t end here. Modi’s trip to Russia comes right after his meeting with G7 leaders in Italy, where the bloc agreed to support Ukraine using confiscated Kremlin assets.
This diplomatic tightrope walk is reflective of broader global shifts. Russia’s growing dependence on China is a critical concern for India, given the Himalayan border tensions with Beijing. Experts like Harsh V. Pant from the Observer Research Foundation note the strained ties between India and China, emphasizing the low probability of high-level engagements anytime soon. Meanwhile, Modi’s decision to skip the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit is telling of India’s strategic recalibration.
Modi’s agenda will likely encompass discussions on trade, defense supplies, and energy cooperation. With a significant focus on Russia-India defense agreements, particularly in the unreliable post-war landscape, the talks could redefine future military collaborations. There’s also significant buzz around cooperation in space exploration, including potential joint missions.
As Russia has been pushed closer to China, another geopolitical concern, India's diplomatic maneuvering aims to avoid regional isolation. While the West celebrates its collective stance against Russia, Modi's engagement reflects a nuanced approach, balancing old alliances and new challenges. The dynamic interplay between supporting traditional ties with Russia and maintaining engagement with Western powers adds another layer to this complex narrative.
Looking back, Modi's last visit to Russia was in 2019 at an economic forum in Vladivostok. The world has since transformed dramatically. This visit comes with expectations and trepidations, with global observers keenly watching how Modi leverages India’s unique position. The global south, the SCO, BRICS, and the G20 all await the outcomes of this high-stakes summit. Whether it’s pressing the Russian defense sector for timely military supplies or making concerted efforts to repatriate Indian nationals embroiled in conflict, the agenda is as comprehensive as it is critical.
As Modi wraps up his two-day stay in Russia before heading to Vienna, it’s fair to wonder about the visit’s long-term implications. Will this trip sow the seeds for an eventual Russo-Indian-led peace dialogue for Ukraine? While the answer remains elusive, Western analysts and policymakers will undoubtedly scrutinize every handshake and headline.
"Neither India nor the global south consider Putin an international pariah," said former Indian ambassador to Russia, summarizing the nuanced stance. As Modi departs Moscow, the world will be left pondering the evolving geopolitics of a multi-polar world where old alliances face new tests.
