The ATP Tour’s Asian hardcourt swing is in full throttle as the 2025 Chengdu Open gets underway, promising a week of high-octane tennis and plenty of intrigue on the medium-fast Laykold courts. With the altitude in Chengdu adding extra zip to every ball, and the weather forecast hinting at rain interruptions amid a steady 25 degrees Celsius, the tournament’s unique conditions are set to challenge even the most seasoned campaigners. Players and fans alike are bracing for a week where attacking tennis and serving prowess could be the ultimate deciders.
Leading the charge this year, Brandon Nakashima stands out as a prime contender. The American, currently ranked no.33, is tipped by experts as the best bet for the title, with odds pegged at 11/2. His career stats make a compelling case: Nakashima has saved 64% of break points faced and boasts an impressive 85% success rate in service games played. These numbers are even more imposing in Chengdu’s fast, altitude-boosted environment, where holding serve is paramount and breaks are a rare commodity.
But Nakashima is far from alone in the spotlight. The tournament draw is a fascinating blend of established stars and rising threats. Lorenzo Musetti, last year’s runner-up and now ranked no.9, returns to Chengdu with a point to prove. Musetti’s 2025 campaign has been impressive, sporting a 30-13 win-loss record and a final appearance at the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters. However, he comes into Chengdu after a tough U.S. Open quarterfinal loss to world no.2 Jannik Sinner, 6-1 6-4 6-2.
Luciano Darderi, another Italian on the rise, enters the tournament at a career-high ranking of no.30. Darderi’s 2025 season has been nothing short of prolific—he’s already clinched four titles in Marrakech, Bastad, Umag, and the Genova Challenger, with a 36-23 record to show for it. His recent triumph in Genova, where he dispatched Andrea Pellegrino 6-1 6-3 in the final, signals that he’s arriving in Chengdu with confidence and momentum.
Tallon Griekspoor, the Dutchman ranked no.31, is also among the top seeds. Griekspoor’s season includes a title in Mallorca and a final run in Marrakech, but his recent form raises questions after a first-round exit at the U.S. Open to Adrian Mannarino. With a 28-19 season record, Griekspoor has shown he can go deep, but the transition to Chengdu’s unique conditions will test his adaptability.
Of course, the defending champion Juncheng Shang casts a long shadow over the field. Last year, Shang stunned the tennis world by defeating Musetti 7-6(4) 6-1 in the final, and he returns with the confidence that comes from having already conquered this stage. The stakes are even higher this time, with the winner set to pocket $181,065—a 2% increase from last year’s purse—and 250 valuable ATP points.
The rest of the field is no less intriguing. Cameron Norrie arrives with momentum from a strong Davis Cup weekend, while Terence Atmane is hoping to recapture the form that saw him reach the Cincinnati semifinals before a foot injury forced him out of New York. Atmane’s fitness remains a question mark, as does the form of Chris O’Connell, who’s flagged with injury, and Griekspoor, who’s yet to find his stride this hardcourt swing. Local fans are also keeping an eye on Coleman Wong, who has been match-tough from recent Davis Cup action and is showing signs of genuine progress.
For Nakashima, the numbers back up the optimism. His serve-heavy game is perfectly tuned for Chengdu’s conditions. Over his career, he’s won 67% of total service points and keeps his double-fault count low, with a 64% first-serve percentage. This reliability under pressure is a major asset, especially when breaks of serve are scarce. Nakashima also converts 36% of break point chances, demonstrating that he’s not just solid on serve but can pounce on opponents’ lapses at key moments.
“Brandon Nakashima’s serve-heavy game is perfectly suited to Chengdu’s medium-fast Laykold courts and altitude. His exceptional hold rate and efficient return numbers set him apart in a field riddled with injury doubts and inconsistency. He looks well-placed to outlast rivals and claim the title,” according to BettingTips4You’s expert analysis.
The tournament’s prize money structure is another talking point, reflecting the event’s growing stature. The winner will take home $181,065, while the finalist earns $105,610. Even those reaching the semifinals or quarterfinals are rewarded handsomely, with $62,085 and $35,970 respectively. These figures represent a 2% increase from 2024, underscoring the tournament’s upward trajectory. The ATP points haul is significant as well, with 250 points for the champion—a valuable boost in the race for year-end rankings.
Looking at the broader field, several seeded players could make an impact. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Sebastian Baez add further depth, but doubts linger about their form and suitability to Chengdu’s slick courts. The field is wide open, with many players carrying physical or form-related question marks, making Nakashima’s steadiness even more valuable.
Musetti’s return to Chengdu is particularly compelling. Having come so close last year, he’ll be eager to go one better, but his preference for slower conditions may work against him on these courts. Darderi, on the other hand, has proven his mettle on hard courts throughout 2025 and could be a dark horse if he maintains his current level.
The weather forecast, with potential rain interruptions, adds another layer of unpredictability. Players will need to manage not just their opponents, but also the stop-start rhythm that comes with rain delays. At 25 degrees, the temperature is less taxing than last year, but for those carrying fatigue from a long season, every extra minute on court counts.
As the tournament unfolds, all eyes will be on Nakashima to see if he can convert his statistical edge into a breakthrough title. But with Musetti, Darderi, Griekspoor, and a host of other challengers in the mix, the path to the trophy is anything but straightforward. The defending champion Shang, with his proven pedigree on these courts, remains a formidable obstacle for anyone with title ambitions.
With the field set and the conditions primed for attacking tennis, the 2025 Chengdu Open promises drama, surprises, and perhaps a few rain-soaked twists. As the first balls are struck, fans and players alike are bracing for a week where every service game, every break point, and every momentum swing could be decisive. Stay tuned—this one’s shaping up to be a classic.