Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, Myanmar has plunged deeply and increasingly toward chaos and instability. Initially regarded as the Myanmar military's attempt to restore order and uphold the constitution, the situation has led to dire consequences for the nation. What was expected to unify the country instead revealed the military junta's fragility as diverse ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and pro-democracy forces fight back against the Tatmadaw's rule. With India bordering Myanmar, the unrest has not only humanitarian but also geopolitical repercussions for New Delhi, complicate its strategic calculations.
Geographically, Myanmar shares about 1,643 kilometers of border with four northeastern Indian states: Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram. Historical ties run deep; both nations share cultural, political, and social connections steeped in the tides of time. The historical significance of their relationship traces back to the British colonial era when Myanmar was part of British India until 1935. The two nations were intertwined during their respective freedom movements, fostering bonds between leaders like India's Jawaharlal Nehru and Myanmar's Aung San. Today’s geopolitical climate puts India’s security alongside Myanmar’s stability; as the saying goes, “What hurts Burma also hurts India,” reflecting the intertwined fates of these neighboring nations.
Since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar has experienced significant turmoil. The coup triggered widespread protests and unrest, which have now evolved toward armed conflict, reflecting the citizens' desperation to reclaim democracy. Notably, on October 27, 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance — which includes the Arakan Army from the Rakhine State, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army from Shan State, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also from Shan State — orchestrated coordinated attacks on military facilities, which has been termed by many as 'Operation 1027'. Remarkably, insurgents seized control of pivotal regions, including the area surrounding Kawlin, marking one of the few instances of successful coordinated attacks against the regime.
This armed resistance is not just limited to rural outposts; it has extended to urban borders. On November 6, 2023, the insurrection spread rapidly across various regions of Myanmar, leading to significant territorial losses for the military junta. For the very first time, it seems various ethnic groups are uniting against the government, achieving strategic milestones against the long-standing military power. This remarkable display of unity among EAOs has raised alarms within Myanmar's ruling class, as they scramble to maintain their grip on power amid growing dissent.
Adding to this volatile mix is the People's Defence Forces (PDF), which has aligned itself with the National Unity Government (NUG) — the parallel government formed to fight back against military rule and supported strongly by international partners, including the United States. The NUG has stated its commitment to humanitarian efforts and internal democracy, promising to act as the legitimate representation of the Myanmar populace.
The US Congress, for its part, took additional steps by passing the HR 5497 Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act of 2021, affirming its support to promote democracy and human rights within Myanmar. This move signals not only the United States’ political upheaval but also its positioning as one of the Myanmar resistance's key allies.
On the international front, the military junta has leaned heavily on alliances with nations like China and Russia, solidifying ties following economic sanctions imposed by Western powers. Reports indicate Myanmar's defense ministry is involved in extensive arms procurement valued at nearly USD 1 billion, primarily from China, showcasing the junta's shift away from Western diplomatic circles. This dependence on China raises concerns for India, which worries about the growing influence of its northern neighbor and the possible creation of military bases near its borders.
For India, this unrest poses severe internal risks. The regions bordering Myanmar have long experienced spillover effects from its internal strife, with refugee influxes threatening to destabilize India's own northeast area. With the rise of anti-junta forces, there’s fear of exacerbated violence along India's borders, increasing risks for states like Manipur, which already grapples with its own insurgent challenges. Tensions are already palpable as communities straddling the border face the brunt of increased unrest.
Recent events paint vivid images of loss and mourning among Myanmar’s civilian population. On All Souls Day, families of anti-junta fighters gathered at clandestine cemeteries to commemorate their loved ones. With powerful emotions intertwined with sorrow, they sang songs and shed tears, each mourning marked by the shared experience of grief stemming from the prolonged civil conflict and its impact on the community.
Thoughts now drift toward the future. Will Myanmar once again find its footing, or is it on the brink of dissolution? Analysts argue Indonesia’s vast geographical fragmentation provides valuable lessons on managing ethnic diversity and stability. For Myanmar, the lessons remain harder to grasp, as deep-rooted ethnic divides and historical grievances surface continuously amid societal chaos.
This turbulent backdrop, characterized by ethnic struggle and power disputes, signals India’s urgent need to navigate its foreign policy carefully. The complexity of Myanmar’s situation presents India with monumental challenges and opportunities. Coinciding with its national interests, New Delhi must engage with multiple stakeholders — from the military junta to resistance groups — to devise substantial responses to regional crises.
This strategic calculus is accentuated by the reality of Myanmar’s shifting geopolitical alliances. Myanmar's pivot toward China adds pressure on India's foreign policy strategists as they navigate their interests against China's expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects involving significant investments across Asia, including Myanmar.
Given these multifaceted challenges, India’s path forward thrives upon proactive engagement and strategic maneuvering. The aim must be to prevent the region from being enveloped by instability, poised to spill over and threaten national interests. Delicate diplomacy needs to prevail; otherwise significant geopolitical changes could unfurl, leading to lasting repercussions not just for Myanmar, but for India and the expansive Southeast Asian region.
Through economic cooperation, military dialogues, and cultural ties, India aims to bolster its relationship with Myanmar, striving to emerge as both a stabilizing force and strategic counterbalance against Chinese encroachment. Future engagements will likely require nuanced approaches and solid commitments to support for the civilian population affected by the civil strife.
Indeed, the situation remains dire and unpredictable, as military clout meets the passionate resistance of diverse factions across Myanmar. Processing through dynamic adversities equipped with cooperation and collaboration will dictate the next phase of this longstanding relationship.
