Myanmar's military brutalities have escalated as the junta ramps up its offensive against rebel forces and civilians, with reports indicating the use of increasingly sophisticated drone warfare and the local production of munitions.
Recent developments highlight the precarious situation for the junta, which has found itself struggling to maintain control since the coup d'état of February 2021. The military has faced significant setbacks against various armed opposition groups, yet has adapted by incorporating drone technology sourced from international partnerships, particularly with countries like China and Russia.
A pivotal moment came earlier this month when the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) uncovered the body of Lieutenant Colonel Thet Paing Tun near the Uyu River, following intense combat at the Lucky Men Hotel located within Hseng Taung village. Eyewitnesses reported he had abandoned his troops during the fighting, which marked the culmination of over one month of conflict characterized by relentless airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and widespread destruction facilitated by the military junta. This battle alone led to the destruction of hundreds of homes and claimed the lives of more than 50 civilians.
Vice-Chairman of the junta's State Administration Council, Vice-Senior General Soe Win, has been proactive, issuing directives for special task forces to crack down on illegal trade, emphasizing its detrimental impact on the national economy. A reported 300 billion kyats’ worth of goods have been confiscated since January 2022, indicating the scale of illegal trading now prevalent due to strict import regulations imposed after the coup. Soe Win recognizes the rising criminal underbelly but also acknowledges its unfortunate role as a buffer for the public against shortages of basic goods, such as medicine.
Adding to the turmoil, former military officials disclosed the existence of around 25 defense industry plants known colloquially as “Ka Pa Sa.” These facilities are responsible for producing nearly half of the junta's munitions, severely impacting its capability to suppress the growing resistance. According to Zin Yaw, a former captain who defected, these plants are scattered across various regions of Myanmar, with many producing armaments such as rifles, grenades, and improvised aerial bombs seemingly crafted from PVC tubing and gunpowder.
Drone use has surged as the military incorporates its own retaliatory tactics against rebel advances. The junta’s operations now include both commercial and military drones equipped with specific munitions manufactured for improved precision. Evidence suggests the junta has developed bombs with stabilizing fins, typically indicative of military manufacture, allowing for greater targeting accuracy during attacks on rebel strongholds and civilian areas alike.
Despite international efforts, including embargoes from the United States and parts of the European Union to halt arms sales to the junta, massive amounts of weaponry continue to flood in, primarily from Russia and China. While many of these arms are directly sold, dual-use technology, such as drones and associated components, seems to penetrate these sanctions, allowing the junta to leverage these resources against its dissenters.
The military's drone program is reported to combine retrofitted commercial drones with custom-built ordnance, leading to devastating strikes on locations controlled by resistance forces. This increased reliance on drones has unsettled both rebel combatants and the civilian populace, who now live under the constant threat of aerial assaults. Survivors of recent strikes recount harrowing tales of sudden, uncontrollable violence, with the method of warfare shifting to such high-tech machinery, adding another layer of fear and uncertainty.
Yet the dynamics on the ground continue to evolve. Despite the junta's growing arsenal and drone capabilities, opposition forces have not remained passive. Armed groups, such as the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), have been mobilizing their own drone capabilities, aiming to counter the junta's technological advances. These groups often make do with less sophisticated, yet innovative solutions to attack military installations and disrupt supply chains.
The strategic importance of drones becomes evident as rebel forces use them to gather intelligence, navigate attacks, and inflict damage upon military operations. An example can be seen with operations targeting military logistics, which are now increasingly vulnerable to drone surveillance and strikes, causing significant logistical disruptions.
Inside the military, the pressure is palpable. Former soldiers report decreased ammunition production at various factories due to increased offensives aimed at destabilizing military operations across regions. This has resulted not just from rebel attacks on these production facilities but also due to defections, which begin to chip away at the junta's personnel strength.
Despite these pressures, the junta has little motivation to back down, as the consolidation of military power is central to its existence. Observers note the grim reality surrounding military operations continues to overshadow the lives of the average citizen, caught between the firefights. A report highlights the plight of civilians who have borne the brunt of these aerial bombardments, such as the tragic incident on July 10, where drone strikes on medical facilities resulted not only in civilian casualties but also heightened fears throughout the civilian population.
International perspectives remain conflicted on how to deal with the junta’s actions. Sanction proposals and calls for actions against nations providing support to Myanmar’s military have not uniformly found support, complicate the humanitarian response, especially as the civilian population continues to suffer due to deteriorated conditions across the country. The need for political solutions seems urgent yet distant, as the military's grip tightens, and opposition groups build their resilience against air and ground assaults.
The situation remains dynamic, and as military and rebel tactics evolve, the life of the common people continues to be precariously dependent on broader geopolitical responses and the outcome of the current conflict. The international community watches with growing concern, as Myanmar's path toward peace and stability appears ever more nebulous.
