Myanmar’s military junta has extended its emergency rule for another six months, thwarting plans for long-promised general elections as the country continues to grapple with the fallout from its protracted civil war. The latest announcement, made by the National Defence and Security Council on January 31, 2025, came just one day before the fourth anniversary of the coup which ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
During the meeting, junta head Min Aung Hlaing stated, "It is found out there are still work to be done to successfully hold general elections," highlighting the junta's argument for requiring stability before moving forward with electoral processes. This marks the seventh consecutive extension of emergency rule since it was initially imposed following the coup on February 1, 2021, which threw Myanmar's political scene upside down.
The current military regime claims to have lost control over vast portions of the country, now only governing about 21% after suffering significant territorial setbacks to various rebel groups. Conflict data analyzed by various organizations indicates the military has been forced to cede control of more than 200 bases, with 95 towns falling to pro-democracy factions over the previous year. The situation is most acute in northern Kachin State and western Rakhine State, where armed groups, particularly the Arakan Army, have successfully secured territory near the border with Bangladesh.
Despite these claims of needing stability for elections, international observers have raised alarms about the junta's legitimacy and its pattern of human rights abuses. According to Amnesty International, more than 6,000 people have been killed since the coup, and over 3.5 million individuals have been internally displaced. Reports of absolute chaos encompass bombings of schools, hospitals, and other civilian structures, creating what the organization calls potential crimes against humanity.
The military faces heightened scrutiny as it attempts to suppress the growing strength of the rebellion aligned against it. Experts note the geographical expanse of rebel control has been redefined, fundamentally altering the dynamics of warfare within the country. Matthew Arnold, an independent analyst tracking the conflict, noted, "The military does not face rebels in this valley or this mountaintop. They say these rebels can now attack us across hundreds and hundreds of miles of contiguous territory where they have absolutely full control." This assertion speaks volumes about the operational hurdles the military now encounters as factions increasingly consolidate power.
China's involvement has also played a significant role amid the upheaval. The country has considerable economic interests at stake, including previously substantial investments for border projects and infrastructure. Reports indicate China has pressured certain rebels to engage in ceasefires and has continued to lean on others to curtail arms trading to maintain stability. With Beijing’s leverage, the question lingers as to how much support the military junta will retain if control continues to wane.
On the ground, notable developments have emerged as the Nguyen National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) made strategic gains by taking Laukkai, marking another substantial loss for the military junta. Meanwhile, Rohingya insurgents have reportedly joined the resistance against the junta, emphasizing the conflict's wide-reaching ramifications. This widespread collaboration forges new alliances, shifting the power structure across Myanmar.
Complex layers of this conflict continue to unravel as humanitarian conditions worsen alongside rising violence. The situation is dire, with millions facing poverty and displacement, amplifying the stakes for the civilian population caught between the military’s iron grip and the rebels' advance.
Looking forward, the junta's aim for elections is viewed as little more than a façade by observers. With the international community expressing skepticism about the military's commitment to democracy, the possibility of meaningful contention remains bleak. Human rights violations continue unabated, and the prevailing belief is the military will struggle to negotiate control of the regions where grassroots uprisings thrive.
With no signs of resolution on the horizon and considerable international attention focused on China’s potential pivot away from supporting the junta, Myanmar seems poised for continued unrest as competing factions vie for legitimacy every day. The conflict's tenth anniversary looms ominously, presenting pressing questions about whether democracy will ever prevail.