Myanmar's political turmoil intensifies as the country marks the four-year anniversary of the military coup, prompting urgent calls for international accountability and action against the junta. The coup, which displaced more than 3.5 million people and resulted in over 6,000 deaths, has transformed Myanmar's sociopolitical fabric, witnessing mass protests and violent resistance.
This year is expected to be decisive for the country. Ahead of the upcoming elections envisioned by the military, the atmosphere remains fraught with mistrust and hostility. The military junta plans to conduct national elections later this year, stymied by the legacy of their February 1, 2021, overthrow of the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. While the junta claims these elections represent their commitment to national reconciliation, opposition groups argue they are merely attempts to legitimize their rule.
Richard Horsey, Myanmar adviser to the International Crisis Group, characterized the recent census conducted from October to December 2024 as “an utter, abject failure.” The government's attempt to document the population was marred by violence, including the deaths of soldiers securing census takers. Horsey emphasized the census's violent disruption reflects its significance, amid the backdrop of heightened civil conflict and mistrust among the populace.
Opposition spokesperson Zaw Kyaw from the National Unity Government (NUG) condemned the upcoming elections, stating, “The election will be a sham; it will just be for show.” He maintains it will not restore stability but exacerbate violence, highlighting the military's belief it can regain legitimacy through this process.
The military junta's narrative claims to combat electoral fraud from the NLD's 2020 landslide victory, which saw Aung San Suu Kyi's party secure 82 percent of contested seats. Following the coup, the military declared the election results void, leading to protests and armed rebellion. Despite recent claims of stability, military operations and control over necessary voter registration processes face significant opposition.
Human rights report after reports narrate widespread atrocities under the junta's rule—arbitrary detentions, torture, and targeted attacks against civilians have been documented. Amnesty International has noted more than 20,000 arbitrary detentions since the coup. “The junta produced absolutely no credible data,” said Khin Ohmar, founder of Progressive Voice, criticizing the military's statistics as lacking depth and sincerity.
The international community's response has included calls for sanctions against the junta and increased humanitarian aid to those affected by the conflict. David Lammy, the UK Foreign Secretary, marked the fourth anniversary of the coup by issuing a heartfelt plea for Aung San Suu Kyi's release, stating, “We have not forgotten. Release Aung San Suu Kyi. Release all those arbitrarily detained.” Lammy's call is echoed by many who advocate for justice and humane governance.
Despite the expected elections and military claims for overarching control, the reality paints a grim picture. Myanmar's military faces unprecedented losses—over 90 towns and 167 battalions captured by resistant groups signify their crumbling power. The call for elections amid undeniable civil unrest is criticized as unrealistic and reckless.
The association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has voiced skepticism about scheduling national elections under conditions of rampant violence. On the other hand, discontent within the military ranks mounts against leader Min Aung Hlaing, creating pressure for regime change.
While Horsey contends elections could still manifest, he describes the exercise as “a violent, messy, incomplete process.” With multiple resistance factions indicating they will target military involvement and condemning anyone perceived as aiding the junta, violence threatens to escalate during this politically charged period.
Resistance leader Zaw Kyaw warned, “No one can stop the military from falling down.” His sentiment captures the increasingly fragmented, chaotic nature of Myanmar's circumstances. Regardless of the military's intentions, the populace's longing for democracy and liberated governance remains steadfast against the backdrop of sorrow and suffering permeated by prolonged conflict.
From international outcry to local resistance, Myanmar's path to recovery remains uncertain as humanitarian needs swell alongside calls for accountability. The military's grip tightens, desperate for legitimacy but facing inevitable pushback as they attempt to organize the controversial upcoming elections. The stakes are higher than ever, and only time will tell how this narrative resolves.