Recent turmoil has engulfed Mozambique, as the country grapples with political strife and economic uncertainty following the contentious presidential election held on October 9, 2024. This political crisis is compounded by the broader economic challenges resulting from delayed liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and allegations of corruption surrounding past government actions, including the infamous Tuna Bond scandal.
The election outcome declared by the National Election Commission (CNE) has sparked widespread skepticism and protests. According to the CNE, the ruling party, the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo), secured 71 percent of the vote, with the main opposition, Podemos party candidate Venâncio Mondlane, receiving only 20 percent. Allegations of electoral irregularities have intensified public distrust, leading to Mondlane's decision to reject the results and seek legal redress.
The aftermath of the election has been chaotic. Protests erupted across major cities, particularly Maputo, where demonstrators expressed their frustration over both the electoral process and the government's ineffectiveness. Some protesters resorted to banging pots and pans at night, proclaiming slogans like "This country is ours." On October 19, tensions escalated when Mondlane’s lawyer, Elvino Dias, was assassinated, resulting in even greater unrest as supportive citizens rallied for accountability and change.
Since the protests began, reports indicate at least 30 fatalities and over 2,000 individuals detained amid violent confrontations with law enforcement. The police have utilized tear gas and batons against demonstrators, and many residents fear for their safety.
Parallel to this political crisis, economic aspirations hang in the balance. Mozambique sits on abundant gas reserves, with substantial offshore discoveries promising potential wealth and development. Yet, the reality remains stark; infrastructure and investment needed to capitalize on these resources have stagnated due to persistent internal conflict and corruption. The LNG projects proposed by major stakeholders like TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil were intended to usher Mozambique onto the global energy stage, but security issues have drastically hindered progress.
The Cabo Delgado region, which is central to Mozambique's LNG ambitions, has long been plagued by insecurity due to insurgent attacks by groups terrorizing local populations since 2021. Notably, the town of Palma was subjected to violent assaults, leading to the suspension of key offshore projects as companies awaited improved security situations.
The external support from Rwandan forces appears to have been insufficient to quell these disturbances. The promise of lucrative LNG projects like the Rovuma LNG and Coral Norte remains unfulfilled, with the success of these endeavors hinging on political stability and security improvements.
Intriguingly, the Tuna Bond scandal continues to cast long shadows over the government’s credibility. This saga revolves around the embezzlement of $500 million intended for the acquisition of fishing boats and naval equipment. Former officials linked to these loans faced severe legal consequences, resulting in significant public disillusionment with the Frelimo party.
Against this backdrop, the sale of unused tuna boats, products of this scandal, has surfaced. Recently reported prices for these vessels range from $270,000 to $1.4 million, and there is hope of recovering some funds lost through the dubious loans. This auction symbolizes the broader issue of government accountability and economic mismanagement following years of alleged corruption.
Regionally, SADC's (Southern African Development Community) role is under scrutiny as political volatility spreads. This organization is conventionally responsible for maintaining peace among its members, yet its responses to Mozambique’s crises have been tardy and ineffective. Many observers express skepticism over whether SADC can effectively address these issues without taking concrete actions beyond mere discussions.
Moving forward, Mozambique stands at a crossroads. The outcome of the current unrest and the effectiveness of regional actors like SADC will shape the nation's future. The struggle to reconcile political grievances with expectations for economic growth will remain pivotal. Observers both within and outside Mozambique are watching closely, as the next steps will determine both the immediate and long-term outlook for this resource-rich but troubled nation.
