The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12) are set to battle the American University Eagles (22-12) on Wednesday, March 19, 2025, in a highly anticipated NCAA Tournament First Four game at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. The tip-off is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, and it promises to be a thrilling matchup for fans of college basketball.
Both teams have been on a roll heading into the tournament. Mount St. Mary’s dominated Iona in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Championship, securing a 63-49 victory while covering as a 4.5-point underdog. The Mountaineers, who finished fourth in their conference with a record of 12-8, managed to win three consecutive games as underdogs during their conference tournament to clinch their seventh NCAA tournament invitation.
On the other hand, the Eagles earned their shot by defeating the Navy Midshipmen 74-52 in the Patriot League Championship game, also covering as a favorite then at four points. With a strong regular-season finish, American tied with the Bucknell Bison at 13-5 and averaged 68 points per game throughout the season, ramping it up to 72 points during their three-game conference tournament winning streak. Leading the charge is senior forward Matt Rogers, who has averaged 17 points per game.
As both teams gear up for a chance at advancing to the Round of 64, Mount St. Mary’s faces a significant hurdle: the absence of sophomore guard Carmelo Pacheco. Ruled out due to a finger injury, Pacheco has been a notable contributor this season, averaging 9.5 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game. Coach Dan Engelstad will need to adapt his strategy to compensate for this loss, likely shifting moreresponsibility onto Dakota Leffew and other guards to up their offensive game.
This matchup marks the 71st meeting between these familiar foes, with American holding a slight edge in the all-time series. Their last clash was a nail-biter, as the Eagles narrowly took victory with a 68-64 score in November. As the anticipation builds for the game, both teams are aware that not only is a ticket to the next round at stake, but they could also be facing the formidable No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils should they win.
In terms of betting lines, American University has been set as a 2.5-point favorite against Mount St. Mary’s. The current moneyline stands at American University at -142, meaning bettors would need to wager $142 to win $100, while Mount St. Mary’s sits at +120, allowing a $100 wager to yield $120 in profit if the underdogs pull through. The over/under for the matchup is set at 129.5, reflecting the predicted pace of the game.
According to analytics from various sources, the implied score from the betting lines suggests a close contest, with predictions favoring American at 66 points to Mount St. Mary’s 64. Notably, American has won 16 games against the spread this season but has struggled to cover when favored, failing to do so 15 times. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary’s boasts a robust 21-12 record against the spread this season, covering in 10 out of 15 games where they have been underdogs.
Evaluating performance metrics, American averages 68.6 points per game and maintains an impressive defensive ranking, allowing only 67.3 points, which ranks 50th in the nation. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, score slightly more at 70.4 points per game but have a lower defensive ranking, allowing 69.8 points, positioning them at 109th nationally. Both teams have shown ability in scoring from beyond the arc, with American averaging 8.4 three-pointers made per game and Mount St. Mary’s close behind at 8, enhancing the stakes for this contest.
As teams take to the floor in Dayton, the anticipation is palpable. Will Mount St. Mary’s rise to the occasion despite their missing star, or will American's consistent performance provide them the edge they need to advance? With the NCAA Tournament's history of surprises and upsets, anything is possible. Fans are urged to tune in to truTV to watch this decisive battle unfold.
As we look forward, predictions suggest Mount St. Mary’s may edge out American University 67-60 based on their recent performance, though the matchup is widely expected to be competitive, and every possession will count as the stakes skyrocket. Remember to engage responsibly if participating in the betting action surrounding this riveting encounter!
