The Montreal Canadiens have seen their season resemble a roller-coaster ride, starting with a dismal 4-9-2 record but now surging with an 8-1-2 stretch that has placed them in a promising position for playoff contention. With the playoffs approaching and performances peaking, is there a path to glory for this Canadian hockey team?
As of March 20, 2025, the Canadiens sit atop the Eastern Conference wild-card race, projecting an 88-point finish that gives them a 40 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. In a tight race with teams like the Rangers (24 percent), Islanders (21 percent), Blue Jackets (17 percent), and Red Wings (five percent), the Canadiens seem to hold the driver’s seat toward postseason action.
The team's resurgence can be attributed largely to their young core asserting itself. Since the 4 Nations Face-Off break, Nick Suzuki has been nothing short of exceptional, leading with 18 points across 11 games, a 55 percent expected goals (xG) rate, and 75 percent of team goals featuring his contributions. His dynamic gameplay has not only solidified his position as Montreal’s leading player but also elevated him into conversations about top players in the entire league.
In addition to Suzuki, teammates Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovský have contributed significantly, each maintaining a point-per-game pace. Caufield, boasting seven goals, ranks high among scorers in the league, while Slafkovský appears to have found his footing as the season progresses. Despite some muted five-on-five numbers, their impact during critical game moments indicates a bright future for the franchise.
The Canadiens' success story is further complemented by an impressive performance in net from Sam Montembeault, who holds a .920 save percentage and leads the league with a staggering 12.1 goals saved above expected during his last outings. Montembeault’s steady presence in goal has been a cornerstone of the team's recent successes.
Another standout player worth mentioning is rookie defenseman Lane Hutson, who continues to make waves in the league. With 12 points in his last 11 games, Hutson's overall performance showcases a remarkable 63 percent share of expected goals and a 1.91 average Game Score that ranks him among the top defensemen in the league. His stellar plus-6.9 Net Rating also establishes him as the top rookie skater, suggesting a bright future ahead for the burgeoning star.
However, despite their impressive statistics since the 4 Nations break, questions loom over the sustainability of the Canadiens' special teams. While the power play ranks eighth in the league with 11.3 goals per 60 and the penalty kill sits sixth with five goals against per 60, there are persistent concerns regarding generating chances consistently. Their expected goals-for rate on the power play is a troubling seventh worst, while their expected goals-against rate on the penalty kill ranks eighth. Many wonder if they can continue to produce these results or if regression is imminent.
The emphasis on special teams is crucial, as the Canadiens buckle down for the final stretch of their season. While remaining optimistic, they are well-aware that effective teams learn to create their own luck, a lesson that the Canadiens seem to be grasping in real-time.
Meanwhile, around the league, other teams and players are navigating their own challenges. For instance, Seth Jones of the Florida Panthers has struggled significantly, earning a mere 39 percent of expected goals while getting outscored 6-1 in his first seven games with the team. His performance has added a layer of concern for a franchise looking to elevate its playoff hopes.
Conversely, Brandon Carlo’s move to the Toronto Maple Leafs has yielded positive results, showcasing a robust 62 percent expected goals rate with just 1.51 expected goals against him per 60 minutes. This level of production serves as a relief for a team eager to stabilize during tight playoff races.
Back in Montreal, the discussion about Auston Matthews widens as he continues to seek consistency. With a similar 55 percent expected goals rate compared to his previous seasons, Matthews struggles reflect how harshly he is being judged this season. Many analysts suggest that even amid lower goal-scoring numbers, Matthews’ floor remains incredibly high.
In the case of the Carolina Hurricanes, the acquisition of Taylor Hall has provided an unexpected jolt. Hall's resurgence, contributing 1.88 points-per-60 at five-on-five and aiding the team in earning 59 percent of expected goals, shows how integral he has become to the team’s dynamic.
One noteworthy player who has garnered attention is Jake Allen of the New Jersey Devils. Since returning from injury, Allen has posted a .926 save percentage and is saving 5.8 goals above expected, presenting a robust alternative to Jacob Markstrom, who has struggled significantly in net.
As the Canadiens prepare for their upcoming games, the stakes climb higher, with playoff berths on the line. The road has been tumultuous; however, with key player performances bolstering the core's capabilities, the Canadiens are on a promising path to not just qualify for the playoffs but to foster a culture of consistent contention in the years to come.
While the mission to secure a playoff spot continues, the true victory may be found in the development and maturation of a young core that is beginning to realize its potential. With a mix of surprise and determination, the Montreal Canadiens are ready for the big stage as they close in on a potentially triumphant return to postseason play.
