Moldova has enacted a state of emergency as the country braces for an energy crisis anticipated to hit at the start of 2025, following the termination of Ukraine's long-standing obligations to transport Russian gas through its territory. The situation poses significant challenges, particularly for the breakaway region of Transnistria, which is expected to suffer immensely.
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean has reassured citizens on the right bank of the Dniester (Nistru) River, stating, "we have enough gas, bought on the international market to keep us warm throughout the winter. Yet, around 360,000 residents on the left bank, within the Russia-controlled Transnistria, remain reliant on Gazprom as their sole gas supply." This dependence could lead to significant hardships, especially if access issues arise.
The leader of Transnistria declared a state of economic emergency on December 6, as shops have begun to see shortages of basic necessities, from heaters to grains, as locals hoard items fearing heightened prices and lack of supply.
For decades, Transnistria relied on free Russian gas. Now, as it faces potential economic distress, the Moscow-controlled region will have to pay market prices. To alleviate some of the burden, the Moldovan government rolled out energy bill relief schemes.
Despite expecting Russia to eventually meet Transnistria's gas needs through the Trans-Balkan pipeline, experts caution the broader economic ramifications for Moldova. Cuts to cheap Russian gas imports may be strategically aimed at inflaming discontent among Moldovan citizens, particularly prior to the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025.
According to former Energy Minister Victor Parlicov, who was dismissed from his position on December 5, "by cutting off Moldova from gas imports, Russia is giving up the leverage it had on the country." His dismissal reflects wider discontent within the Moldovan government as officials grapple with the crisis, trying to navigate the complex political ramifications.
Critics, including those from pro-Kremlin factions and some members of the pro-European opposition, blame the Moldovan government for failing to establish clear energy policies or stockpiling supplies earlier when gas was cheaper. Several key leaders within the government experienced dismissals, with Parlicov and others alleging they have been made scapegoats for systemic issues.
Negotiations have taken place between Chisinau and Gazprom to secure gas for the people of Transnistria, which has received mixed reactions from the public. Irina Tabaranu, who oversees the media outlet Zona de Securitate, remarked, "it looks stupid to ask for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria and meanwhile request Russia to continue to give free gas to the region. This crisis could have been our opportunity for reintegration. Why rely on international partners for subsidies year after year instead of seeking reintegration for 11% of our territory?"
Oleg Serebrian, Moldova's deputy prime minister for reintegration, emphasized the challenges of reintegration efforts hampered by the presence of Russian troops. He said, "we are closing the gap with people on the left bank and showing them Chisinau cares about citizens there." Serebrian's remarks resonate with mounting calls for addressing Transnistria's grievances amid changing geopolitical dynamics.
Meanwhile, rising tensions between Moldova and Russia are at play, as Russian officials accused Chisinau of devising plans for military operations against Transnistria. Moldova's government rebuffed these claims, insisting its focus remains on finding peaceful reintegration solutions.
All of this takes place against the backdrop of the upcoming elections set for July, where the government's handling of the energy crisis could become pivotal. Recean, who has taken on direct responsibility for managing energy supplies, assured citizens they would not face higher bills than last winter. Nevertheless, adjustments to the needs-based subsidy system, shifting from automatic calculations to cash-in-hand schemes, raised concerns among the public.
Despite these challenges, recent surveys indicate shifts in public sentiment, particularly since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Research conducted by Zona de Securitate and the think tank Watchdog found 45% of Transnistrians are now in favor of reintegration with Moldova, with only 38% opposed. This indicates potential political opening, especially as Moldova seeks to reestablish connections with its people.
Further complicATING matters, 25% of left-bank residents supported enshrining the path toward EU integration within Moldova’s constitution during the recent referendum, contrasting sharply with the 5% support recorded from the southern autonomous region of Gagauzia, which remains largely pro-Russian.
The government, aware of the hurdles posed by past over-dependence on Russian energy, acknowledged the pressing need for diversification. Serebrian stated, "we are paying the cost for 30 years of 'comfort'." Ensuring energy security through imports from Romania has become more pertinent, highlighted by Moldova's connection to the Vulcanesti-Isaccea electricity line. Future plans to build additional interconnections may mitigate potential electricity shortages.
Developments within green energy may offer Moldova another pathway to independence. The National Centre for Sustainable Energy reported the country has tripled its solar capacity over the past year. Tim Gould from the International Energy Agency pointed out the benefits of adopting clean energy technologies for both energy security and economic stability; yet he noted, "every country could be doing more to deploy clean energy technologies."
