Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin met face-to-face on Monday afternoon, August 25, 2025, in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin, marking a pivotal moment in India’s foreign relations amid mounting pressure from the United States to curb its purchase of Russian crude oil. The meeting, which followed the conclusion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders’ summit, comes at a time when India finds itself navigating a complex web of diplomatic and economic challenges, with the world’s major powers all watching closely.
Putin arrived in Tianjin on Sunday morning, August 24, to attend the SCO summit, while Modi reached a day earlier and held bilateral talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sunday afternoon. This was the first in-person meeting between Modi and Putin since Donald Trump secured a second term as US President. Their previous encounter was on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, back in October 2024, according to The Hindu.
The backdrop to this summit is anything but simple. Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, India has ramped up its imports of discounted Russian oil, saving an estimated $17 billion since early 2022, as reported by Reuters. But those savings are now under threat. On August 7, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% penalty on Indian goods, effective August 27, 2025, as punishment for India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. The tariffs, which could reach up to 50% on some goods, are expected to reduce Indian exports by more than 40%—nearly $37 billion in the current fiscal year, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
The fallout could be severe for India’s economy and for Modi politically. Labor-intensive sectors like textiles, gems, and jewelry are especially vulnerable, risking thousands of jobs. Modi, facing a tough election in Bihar later this year, has responded by pledging support for India’s farmers and promising significant cuts in the goods and services tax by October to boost domestic demand—moves widely seen as a response to Trump’s demands for India to open up its agricultural sector.
Yet, the stakes are about more than just economics. As Happymon Jacob, founder of Delhi’s Council for Strategic and Defence Research, told Reuters, "India needs Russia for defence equipment for several more years, cheap oil when available, geopolitical support in the continental space and political backing on sensitive matters. That makes Russia an invaluable partner for India." But Jacob also noted, "Despite the difficulties between Delhi and Washington under Trump, the United States continues to be India’s most important strategic partner. India simply doesn’t have the luxury of choosing one over the other, at least not yet."
India’s foreign policy, then, is a delicate balancing act. On the one hand, New Delhi has sought to reinforce its friendship with Moscow, stepping up high-level engagement. Foreign ministers Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Sergey Lavrov met in Moscow on August 22, 2025, to discuss sustaining energy cooperation, joint extraction of energy resources in Russia, and rebalancing bilateral trade, which currently favors Moscow. India is Russia’s second-largest trading partner, while Russia is India’s fourth-largest, and New Delhi has pushed to increase exports in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and textiles to correct the trade imbalance. Modi and Putin have spoken by phone twice in August alone, reaffirming their commitment to the strategic partnership.
On the other hand, India is keeping the door open to Washington. Two Indian government sources told Reuters that New Delhi wants to repair ties with the US and is open to increasing purchases of American energy, but is reluctant to fully halt imports from Russia. Ongoing discussions between Indian and US officials touch on trade, energy security—including nuclear cooperation—and critical minerals exploration. As India’s foreign secretary explained, these talks are ongoing and reflect the country’s desire to avoid being unfairly targeted for its energy choices, especially when, as Jaishankar pointed out, China is the largest purchaser of Russian oil and the European Union is the largest buyer of Russian LNG.
The numbers are stark. Russian crude now makes up nearly 40% of India’s total oil imports, up from almost nothing before the Ukraine war. An immediate halt, Indian officials warn, would not only be economically unfeasible but could also send global crude prices soaring to as much as $200 a barrel, based on internal government estimates cited by Reuters. India currently benefits from up to a 7% discount on Russian oil compared to global benchmarks, and its imports from Russia stand at about 2 million barrels per day.
New Delhi has not shied away from calling out what it sees as American double standards. In a sharp statement this month, India accused the US of singling it out for Russian oil imports while itself continuing to buy Russian uranium hexafluoride, palladium, and fertilizer. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for his part, told CNBC that India’s increased purchases of Russian oil were "unacceptable," contrasting them with China’s more modest increase.
The diplomatic chessboard extends beyond the US and Russia. Modi’s visit to China—the first in over seven years—signals a thaw in India-China relations after a deadly border clash in 2020. While Modi formally invited Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to India for the Quad Summit, uncertainty looms over whether India will host the event in November. And despite Russia’s hopes for a trilateral summit with India and China, New Delhi remains cautious in its dealings with Beijing.
The international dimension is further complicated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Modi on August 30, 2025, to discuss the humanitarian situation and prospects for peace, with Modi reaffirming India’s support for "all efforts in this direction." Meanwhile, Jaishankar told his Finnish counterpart Elina Valtonen that India should not be "unfairly targeted" over its stance on the Ukraine conflict.
Looking ahead, Putin’s visit to India for the annual India-Russia summit is scheduled for December 2025, while his next stop is Beijing for an event marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia. Modi’s own plans to visit New York for the UN General Assembly, and possibly Washington, now appear unlikely, underlining the current chill in US-India ties.
Experts warn that the consequences of the US tariffs will likely linger, even if some are eventually reversed. As Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, explained, "Competitors like China, Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey, and even Pakistan, Nepal, Guatemala, and Kenya stand to gain, potentially locking India out of key markets even after tariffs are rolled back." The trade dispute could also spill over into other areas, including work visas for Indian tech professionals and the offshoring of services.
For now, India is walking a diplomatic tightrope, striving to protect its economic interests, maintain strategic autonomy, and avoid being boxed in by the world’s great powers. The outcome of this high-stakes balancing act will shape not only India’s future, but also the broader contours of Asian and global geopolitics in the years ahead.
