The United States real estate market is currently experiencing significant contrasts as regions navigate varying trends, with certain locales showing marked slowdowns, particularly Sarasota-Manatee, and others, like Greenville, reporting notable increases. This mixed bag of performance highlights the complexity of the post-pandemic housing environment.
According to the latest report from the Realtors Association of Sarasota and Manatee, the local real estate market has shown "a clear slowdown, with fewer sales, lower prices, and longer times to sell" as of November 2024. The slowdown has been attributed to multiple factors, including high mortgage rates, persistent inflation, and the diminishing affordability of homes. Following the soaring prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, the market appears to be recalibrated, moving toward more balanced conditions.
"The current trends show the market is finding its footing after the pandemic-driven surge," remarked Tony Barrett, the 2024 RASM president and broker/owner of Barrett Realty. He noted the situation resembles the pre-pandemic market where buyers and sellers had more equal chances to navigate successfully. Those hoping to sell their homes today will find themselves operating under very different conditions compared to just two years ago.
New data reveals key trends for the Sarasota-Manatee real estate market: closed sales of single-family homes decreased by 18.9% compared to the previous year, with only 439 properties sold. Meanwhile, the median sales price stabilized at $490,000, showing a slight year-over-year decline of 2%. The situation was similarly bleak for Manatee County, where closed sales dropped by 15.5%, and the median price fell 11.5% month-over-month to $430,000.
Despite the shocks to the market, the local Realtors association remains cautiously optimistic about the future of home sales. They stated, "While it may seem concerning to see fewer sales and longer times to sell, these changes bring the market closer to the steadier patterns we saw before 2020," highlighting the reality of slower price growth and reduced competition as more favorable conditions for both buyers and sellers.
On the flip side, the Greenville area has seen remarkable improvements. Reports from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors indicate closed sales increased by 9.7% year-over-year for November, marking the largest single-month growth since July. This recent uptick aligns with national trends, as existing-home sales across the U.S. rose by 6.1% year-over-year. The 2024 housing report from the National Association of Realtors had indicated similar positive developments with 5.9% increase for the Greenville market compared to the previous year.
"Home sales momentum is building," stated Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at NAR. He explained how rising job numbers and increasing housing inventory are contributing to the uptick. Inventory surged by 29.6% year-over-year, boasting 4,798 homes available, representing the highest monthly total since December 2014. This influx of inventory has also pushed the area's median price down to $305,000, continuing its decline for the third consecutive month.
The regional differences paint a complex picture of the U.S. real estate market. While Sarasota-Manatee and Greenville are experiencing opposite trends, they speak to broader economic conditions and housing demand dynamics. This year, the slower rates of buyer activity, especially influenced by the constraints of high mortgage rates, have made sellers more strategic.
Meanwhile, the highlight of Greenville’s real estate scene isn’t limited to residential sales alone. Multifamily occupancy also saw significant gains as the occupancy rate surpassed 89% for the first time since 2022. Commercial real estate firm Colliers South Carolina noted the region remains active with housing demand driven by strong employment growth, even amid construction slowdowns due to financing challenges.
Despite sluggish multifamily construction rates—having decreased substantially compared to two years ago—existing leases and rental demand contribute positively to the overall market sentiment. The construction pipeline indicates about 3,741 multifamily units are currently underway, with major projects like the Judson Mill slated for completion as early as late 2025.
Nationally, single-family housing starts saw resilience too. Reports from Wells Fargo indicated a 6% increase nationwide, with 1.01 million starts registered after recovery from October's hurricane fallout. A significant rebound was noted particularly within the Southern region, where single-family building jumped by 18.3% this November—the highest rate since February—while multifamily projects struggled with substantial declines.
Yet, economists express caution. Wells Fargo analysts warn of potential constraints on residential construction due to shifts arising from recent elections, which could impact trade and immigration policies affecting building material availability and contractor labor. The rises in capital costs coupled with continued elevated mortgage rates pose significant, long-term headwinds for the recovery of housing starts.
Understanding these local and national trends gives insights to the current state of the real estate market, characterized by its disparities and adaptations. Decisions made today by buyers and sellers will likely shape the future dynamics of the housing sector as it continues to adjust to the post-pandemic reality.
