The haze of conflict clouds the air as the U.S. prepares for the decisive 2024 presidential elections, which could be significantly influenced by the turmoil spreading from the Middle East. With the clock ticking down to November 5, candidates have their eyes set not just on their established bases but also on wavering constituencies caught between their allegiance to the Democratic Party and their views on foreign policy. Chief among them are Arab and Jewish voters, whose expectations surround candidates’ responses to the violence exacerbated by Israel’s military campaigns.
Recent developments reflect growing trepidation among these communities. For many Arab Americans, Vice President Kamala Harris’s steadfast support for Israel throughout the war on Gaza has been deeply disheartening. This discontent is evident with some voters pondering whether to abstain from voting at all, potentially tipping races in pivotal battleground states like Michigan, where Arab voter turnout could dictate the overall outcome.
According to Jim Zogby, co-founder of the Arab American Institute, by the tenure of former President Barack Obama, Arab Americans largely identified as Democrats — with 59 percent voting for Biden's candidacy during the 2020 election. Now, Zogby notes, party identification shows troubling signs, nearly even between the two major parties with Harris at 41 percent among Arab voters and Trump at 42 percent.
The attendance of Arab Americans at the polls may hinge on how deeply they feel their concerns are being acknowledged. This has become especially relevant with the Biden administration continuing its military support for Israel amid extensive bombings leading to staggering casualties, particularly among civilians. With reports indicating more than 42,000 deaths, predominantly women and children, resentment toward the administration grows stronger.
Polling data tells another story: the September poll by the Arab American Institute showcased the near tie between the two candidates. This shift from Biden’s earlier 59 percent vote share among Arab Americans has alarmed the Democrats, particularly as Harris cannot seem to shake off the shadows of the previous administration’s foreign policy.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party's perceived silence on Palestinian lives has not gone unnoticed. Critics argue the administration's unyielding support for Israel amid mounting civilian casualties sends the message of indifference, leading many Arab Americans to reassess their political allegiance. Harris’s campaign has been slammed for not giving enough attention to these communities — she declined to deviate from Biden's stance on weapons transfers to Israel, even as violence escalates.
On the other side of the aisle, the Republican candidate, Trump, sees this situation as unprecedented leverage. His campaign aims to chip away at the Jewish voter base's support for Democrats by highlighting the burgeoning Arab dissatisfaction with Harris. By sending messages of unwavering support for Israel, Trump hopes to win Jewish votes, especially from swing states — Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — where even minute shifts among Jewish voters could lead to sizable electoral shifts.
Certain Jewish communities are caught between their historical alliances and present-day realities. Various polls indicate mixed sentiments among Jewish voters: Harris winning approximately 71 percent support among Jews according to the Jewish Democratic Council, contrasts starkly with findings from other organizations indicating her remaining appeal is tenuous, particularly among swing state voters. According to Siena College polling, Harris barely leads Trump among Jewish voters.
Political analysts suggest the situation is fluid and ripe for exploitation by either side. For example, the Jewish community's discontentment has been sparked by several factors: from the perceived anti-Semitic sentiments circulating within progressive factions to feelings of neglect from Democratic leaders concerning domestic issues. Harris’s engagement strategy, through surrogates like Congressman Ritchie Torres, reflects the urgent need for her campaign to solidify its standing among Jewish voters by addressing these fears.
It’s not just voter micro-targeting; it’s about narratives and talking points. Whether it’s Trump promising to bolster U.S.-Israel relations or Harris pledging to champion intra-party dialogue on ensuring Israel’s security without forsaking Palestinian rights, their rhetoric is testing the waters to determine where voters stand.
On the ground, voters are weighing the importance of foreign policy debates against pressing domestic issues. Recent polling shows concern about escalatory actions from both sides. The Palestinians and Lebanese regard U.S. military aid to Israel as tacit endorsement, which turns moderate or progressive voters against the heavier hand used against their constituencies.
Therefore, as the Middle East conflict hots up, so does the electoral battle. Arab and Muslim American voters — once reliably blue — are feeling neglected, and their votes could slip away. Conversely, Jewish support is being vigorously contested, forcing both parties to rethink strategies. Candidates have to tread lightly, balancing the precarious line of group sentiment without losing sight of their respective bases.
The growing unease among voters over the situation could translate directly to the polls, with many indicating they'll prioritize candidates’ positions on foreign affairs. Potential shifts could be telling; Arab Americans may protest at the polls through apathy, whereas Jewish voters could tip needed electoral margins simply by reallocations of support.
Internal divisions within Jewish and Arab voting groups fuel uncertainty. The consequences of their votes stretch to speak volumes about their dissatisfaction and can act as bellwethers of larger trends within the electorate. Ending on the cusp of these shifts, the final weeks before the U.S. elections now hinge upon rhetoric and reactions shaped by events beyond American soil.
